Popular:
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$421.13
→
Intrinsic$189.92
-55%
$121.08$189.92$320.78
Market implies 27% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $421, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (27%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $121 → Bull $321. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $230 | $254 | $279 | $306 |
| 10% | $156 | $172 | $190 | $209 |
| 12% | $115 | $127 | $140 | $154 |
| 14% | $89 | $99 | $109 | $120 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($321) with 10% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($121) implies 71% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 27% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 55% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.47B
Year 2$1.58B
Year 3$1.71B
Year 4$1.85B
Year 5$2.00B
Terminal$29.36B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.36BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.