Popular:
Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$193.23
→
Intrinsic$94.00
-51%
$62.23$94.00$157.24
Market implies 26% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $193, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (26%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $62 → Bull $157. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $115 | $126 | $138 | $151 |
| 10% | $79 | $86 | $94 | $102 |
| 12% | $60 | $65 | $71 | $77 |
| 14% | $48 | $52 | $56 | $61 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($157) with 10% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($62) implies 68% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 26% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 51% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.77B
Year 2$1.91B
Year 3$2.06B
Year 4$2.23B
Year 5$2.41B
Terminal$38.11B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.64BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.