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RTX Corporation (RTX)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$194.08
→
Intrinsic$50.80
-74%
$24.93$50.80$102.27
Current price reflects execution expectations above 12% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $25 → Bull $102. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $102).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $69 | $78 | $87 | $97 |
| 10% | $39 | $45 | $51 | $57 |
| 12% | $23 | $27 | $32 | $36 |
| 14% | $13 | $16 | $20 | $24 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($102) with 15% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 12% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($25) implies 87% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 74% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($102) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$5.09B
Year 2$5.71B
Year 3$6.40B
Year 4$7.19B
Year 5$8.06B
Terminal$127.77B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate12.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$4.53BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.