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Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$69.00
→
Intrinsic$254.17
+268%
$174.88$254.17$404.69
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests RYAAY could have 268% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $69, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 20%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $175 → Bull $405. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$309$334$361$390
10%$218$236$254$274
12%$169$181$195$210
14%$137$147$158$169

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($405) offers 487% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($175) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 20% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$2.24B
Year 2$2.70B
Year 3$3.24B
Year 4$3.90B
Year 5$4.69B
Terminal$69.01B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.3%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.86BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is RYAAY stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

RYAAY trades at $69.00 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $251.54, implying +251% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.3% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of RYAAY's future cash flows. The bear case ($166.82) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is RYAAY's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.86B, projected at 20.3% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-1.18B net debt and dividing by 0.22B shares: Bear $166.82 | Base $251.54 | Bull $376.30. Current price $69.00 implies +251% to base case.

How is RYAAY's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.3% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($54.55B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.