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Service Corporation International (SCI)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$82.10
→
Intrinsic$49.42
-40%
$23.60$49.42$98.48
Market implies 21% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 12% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $82, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (21%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $24 → Bull $98. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $66 | $74 | $83 | $93 |
| 10% | $37 | $43 | $49 | $56 |
| 12% | $21 | $26 | $31 | $36 |
| 14% | $11 | $15 | $19 | $23 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($98) offers 20% upside at 15% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 12% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($24) implies 71% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 21% growth expectations vs 12% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 40% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$623.31M
Year 2$699.02M
Year 3$783.93M
Year 4$879.14M
Year 5$985.92M
Terminal$14.51B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate12.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$555.80MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.