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Sealed Air Corporation (SEE) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Sealed Air Corporation (SEE)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$41.76
→
Intrinsic$39.07
-6%
$17.75$39.07$79.58
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
SEE appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $42, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (10%).
Range: Bear $18 → Bull $80. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →6%8%10%12%
8%$52$59$67$75
10%$29$34$39$45
12%$16$20$24$28
14%$8$11$14$17

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($80) offers 91% upside at 11% growth, 9% discount
  • Conservative 10% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($18) implies 57% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$556.44M
Year 2$609.75M
Year 3$668.16M
Year 4$732.17M
Year 5$802.30M
Terminal$11.81B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate9.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$507.80MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is SEE stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

SEE trades at $41.76, within 10% of our $39.07 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 9.6% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $19.81 (bear) to $65.19 (bull).

What is SEE's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $508M, projected at 9.6% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $4.14B net debt and dividing by 0.15B shares: Bear $19.81 | Base $39.07 | Bull $65.19. Current price $41.76 implies -6% to base case.

How is SEE's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 9.6% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($9.84B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 19.4x.