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Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Super Group (SGHC) Limited (SGHC)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$10.01
→
Intrinsic$14.62
+46%
$10.15$14.62$23.09
Market implies 16% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests SGHC could have 46% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $10, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (16%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $10 → Bull $23. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$18$19$21$22
10%$13$14$15$16
12%$10$11$11$12
14%$8$9$9$10

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($23) offers 131% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (16%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($10) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$249.53M
Year 2$311.91M
Year 3$389.89M
Year 4$487.36M
Year 5$609.20M
Terminal$8.96B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$199.62MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is SGHC stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

SGHC trades at $10.01, within 10% of our $12.22 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $8.23 (bear) to $18.09 (bull).

What is SGHC's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $200M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-315M net debt and dividing by 0.50B shares: Bear $8.23 | Base $12.22 | Bull $18.09. Current price $10.01 implies +5% to base case.

How is SGHC's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($5.84B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.