Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)
Valuation Overview•Is Surgery Partners, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Fragile underlying quality score of 38/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
SGRY struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 11.8%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $810.9M | +6.2% | +9.2% | +12.2% | +13.2% | |
| EBITDA | $104.3M | — | +7.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$35.9M | +53.7% | -12.6% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.28 | +54.1% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$4.3M | -6.7% | +35.7% | -0.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 22.8% | 23.6% | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| Operating Margin | 11.8% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 11.8% |
| Net Margin | -2.3% | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| FCF Margin | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.15 | $-0.03 | +80.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.31 | $0.12 | -61.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.19 | $0.13 | -31.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.16 | $0.17 | +6.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.08 | $0.04 | -50.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.38 | $0.44 | +15.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.25 | $0.19 | -24.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.21 | $0.21 | +0.0% |
Total return is -26.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -51.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -4.7% | -14.0% | — |
| 1Y | -26.7% | -51.7% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -29.5% | -49.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -25.8% | -38.9% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -0.8% | -14.6% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) valuation, health, and returns.
Surgery Partners, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +158.4% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $37.60)
Surgery Partners, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $37.60 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $17.40 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $19.33 (implying +32.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Surgery Partners, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 38/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.1 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.1%.
Surgery Partners, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Surgery Partners, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +6.2% 1Y revenue growth and +54.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 22 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +32.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Surgery Partners, Inc. include: -51.8% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.94x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.