Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI)
Valuation Overview•Is Selective Insurance Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Moderate quality score of 73/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral with steady expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
SIGI demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (14.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (28.3% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 9.9%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | +9.8% | +14.5% | +12.8% | +9.6% | |
| EBITDA | $137.4M | — | +24.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $97.7M | +125.3% | +27.5% | — | +10.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.58 | +131.6% | +28.3% | +12.8% | +10.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $210.5M | +15.4% | +16.7% | +18.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 40.7% | 19.9% | 17.2% | 14.8% |
| Operating Margin | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% |
| Net Margin | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% |
| FCF Margin | 21.2% | 20.8% | 21.3% | 18.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.80 | $1.69 | -6.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.02 | $2.57 | +27.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.85 | $1.75 | -5.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.55 | $1.31 | -15.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.89 | $1.76 | -6.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.99 | $1.62 | -18.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.65 | $1.40 | -15.2% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.56 | $-1.10 | -170.5% |
Total return is +10.3% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -14.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +11.6% | +2.2% | — |
| 1Y | +10.3% | -14.7% | +2.0% |
| 3YCAGR | -0.2% | -19.7% | +4.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +5.9% | -7.0% | +9.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +10.8% | -2.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) valuation, health, and returns.
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +28.1% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $118.29)
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $118.29 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $79.52 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $95.00 (implying +2.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 73/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 10.9%.
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. pays a 1.6% dividend yield, covered by a 20% payout ratio with 12 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.7% buyback yield.
Selective Insurance Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +9.8% 1Y revenue growth and +131.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +14.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 16 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 8% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +2.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Selective Insurance Group, Inc. include: -18.9% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.14x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.