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Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (SLDE) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (SLDE)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$17.65
→
Intrinsic$60.45
+243%
$42.30$60.45$94.90
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests SLDE could have 243% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $18, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $42 → Bull $95. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$74$79$85$92
10%$53$56$60$65
12%$41$44$47$50
14%$34$36$38$41

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($95) offers 438% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($42) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Net Income Projection

Year 1$251.41M
Year 2$314.26M
Year 3$392.82M
Year 4$491.03M
Year 5$613.78M
Terminal$9.03B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$201.13MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is SLDE stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

SLDE trades at $17.65 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $50.69, implying +175% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of SLDE's future cash flows. The bear case ($34.47) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is SLDE's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $201M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-445M net debt and dividing by 0.12B shares: Bear $34.47 | Base $50.69 | Bull $74.57. Current price $17.65 implies +175% to base case.

How is SLDE's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($5.89B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.