...

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$21.15
→
Intrinsic$50.65
+139%
$33.84$50.65$82.55
Market implies 3% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests SMPL could have 139% upside at 24% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $21, the market prices in only 3% growth — below historical 24%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $34 → Bull $83. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →20%22%24%26%
8%$63$68$73$79
10%$43$47$51$55
12%$33$35$38$41
14%$26$28$30$32

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($83) offers 290% upside at 29% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (3%) ≤ historical CAGR (24%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($34) with 19% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 24% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$195.58M
Year 2$242.23M
Year 3$300.02M
Year 4$371.58M
Year 5$460.21M
Terminal$6.77B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate23.9%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$157.91MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare SMPL vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SMPL stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

SMPL trades at $21.15 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $44.06, implying +130% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 23.9% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of SMPL's future cash flows. The bear case ($28.39) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is SMPL's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $158M, projected at 23.9% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $206M net debt and dividing by 0.10B shares: Bear $28.39 | Base $44.06 | Bull $67.13. Current price $21.15 implies +130% to base case.

How is SMPL's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 23.9% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($4.68B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.6x.