SharkNinja, Inc. (SN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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SharkNinja, Inc. (SN)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$126.17

→

Intrinsic$57.23

-55%

$37.70$57.23$94.31

Growth 20%

Discount 10%

Terminal 3%

Current price reflects execution expectations above 20% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.

Range: Bear $38 → Bull $94. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.

Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $94).

Discount ↓Growth →	16%	18%	20%	22%
8%	$71	$77	$83	$91
10%	$48	$53	$57	$62
12%	$36	$39	$43	$46
14%	$28	$31	$34	$36

Bull Case

Bull case ($94) with 24% growth, 9% discount rate

Bear Case

Bear case ($38) implies 70% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
Trading 55% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Price exceeds bull case ($94) — requires exceptional execution

Intrinsic Value vs Current Price

5-Year Cash Flow Projection

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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$354.53M

Year 2$425.43M

Year 3$510.52M

Year 4$612.62M

Year 5$735.15M

Terminal$10.82B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)

Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate

Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate

Base Free Cash Flow$295.44MTTM actual

Bear g×0.8, r+2%

Base Historical CAGR

Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%

ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SN stock undervalued or overvalued?

🔴 OVERVALUED

SN trades at $126.17 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $57.23, implying -51% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($88.29) suggests limited upside.

What is SN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $295M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $575M net debt and dividing by 0.14B shares: Bear $36.13 | Base $57.23 | Bull $88.29. Current price $126.17 implies -51% to base case.

How is SN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($8.65B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.

SharkNinja, Inc. (SN) Intrinsic Value