Popular:
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$19.15
→
Intrinsic$16.22
-15%
$10.52$16.22$27.06
Market implies 14% growth for 5 years
SPH trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $19, the market prices in 14% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (11%).
Range: Bear $11 → Bull $27. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| 10% | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| 12% | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| 14% | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($27) offers 41% upside at 13% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 11% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($11) implies 45% downside at 9% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 14% growth expectations vs 11% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 15% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$64.27M
Year 2$71.21M
Year 3$78.90M
Year 4$87.42M
Year 5$96.87M
Terminal$1.43B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate10.8%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$58.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.