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SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$211.07
→
Intrinsic$156.14
-26%
$102.87$156.14$257.23
Market implies 30% growth for 5 years
SPXC trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $211, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (30%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $103 → Bull $257. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →18%20%22%24%
8%$194$210$228$247
10%$132$144$156$169
12%$99$107$116$126
14%$77$84$91$99

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($257) offers 22% upside at 27% growth, 9% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($103) implies 51% downside at 18% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 30% growth expectations vs 22% historical — high bar to clear
  • Trading 26% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$302.72M
Year 2$369.66M
Year 3$451.40M
Year 4$551.21M
Year 5$673.10M
Terminal$9.90B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate22.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$247.90MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is SPXC stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

SPXC trades at $211.07 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $143.25, implying -31% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 22.1% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($221.36) suggests limited upside.

What is SPXC's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $248M, projected at 22.1% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $513M net debt and dividing by 0.05B shares: Bear $90.20 | Base $143.25 | Bull $221.36. Current price $211.07 implies -31% to base case.

How is SPXC's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 22.1% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($7.26B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.