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TEGNA Inc. (TGNA) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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TEGNA Inc. (TGNA)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$18.95
→
Intrinsic$103.32
+445%
$65.77$103.32$174.61
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests TGNA could have 445% upside at 22% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $19, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 22%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $66 → Bull $175. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →18%20%22%24%
8%$130$141$154$168
10%$87$95$103$113
12%$63$69$75$82
14%$48$52$58$63

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($175) offers 821% upside at 26% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (22%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($66) with 18% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 22% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$771.22M
Year 2$940.33M
Year 3$1.15B
Year 4$1.40B
Year 5$1.70B
Terminal$25.08B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate21.9%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$632.53MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is TGNA stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

TGNA trades at $18.95 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $95.00, implying +300% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 21.9% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of TGNA's future cash flows. The bear case ($57.33) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is TGNA's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $633M, projected at 21.9% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $2.45B net debt and dividing by 0.17B shares: Bear $57.33 | Base $95.00 | Bull $150.47. Current price $18.95 implies +300% to base case.

How is TGNA's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 21.9% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($18.52B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.