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Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$624.65
→
Intrinsic$372.18
-40%
$224.92$372.18$665.21
Market implies 24% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 13% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $625, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (24%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $225 → Bull $665. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 9% | 11% | 13% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $478 | $527 | $579 | $636 |
| 10% | $305 | $337 | $372 | $410 |
| 12% | $213 | $237 | $263 | $290 |
| 14% | $157 | $175 | $195 | $217 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($665) offers 6% upside at 15% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 13% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($225) implies 64% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 24% growth expectations vs 13% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 40% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$8.18B
Year 2$9.20B
Year 3$10.35B
Year 4$11.64B
Year 5$13.10B
Terminal$207.58B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate12.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$7.27BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.