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Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$35.50
→
Intrinsic$249.13
+602%
$169.18$249.13$400.81
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests TPH could have 602% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $36, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $169 → Bull $401. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $307 | $332 | $358 | $386 |
| 10% | $214 | $231 | $249 | $268 |
| 12% | $163 | $176 | $189 | $203 |
| 14% | $131 | $140 | $151 | $162 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($401) offers 1029% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($169) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$840.96M
Year 2$1.05B
Year 3$1.31B
Year 4$1.64B
Year 5$2.05B
Terminal$30.21B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$672.76MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.