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Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$7.50
→
Intrinsic$60.81
+711%
$28.63$60.81$121.87
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests UNIT could have 711% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $8, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $29 → Bull $122. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$84$94$105$116
10%$47$54$61$69
12%$26$31$37$42
14%$13$17$21$26

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($122) offers 1525% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($29) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$510.27M
Year 2$637.84M
Year 3$797.30M
Year 4$996.62M
Year 5$1.25B
Terminal$18.33B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$408.22MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is UNIT stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

UNIT trades at $7.50 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $43.51, implying +300% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of UNIT's future cash flows. The bear case ($14.77) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is UNIT's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $408M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $5.73B net debt and dividing by 0.14B shares: Bear $14.77 | Base $43.51 | Bull $85.83. Current price $7.50 implies +300% to base case.

How is UNIT's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($11.95B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.