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Unum Group 6.250% JR NT58 (UNMA) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Unum Group 6.250% JR NT58 (UNMA)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$23.63
→
Intrinsic$188.52
+698%
$122.57$188.52$313.84
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests UNMA could have 698% upside at 13% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $24, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 13%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $123 → Bull $314. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →9%11%13%15%
8%$230$252$275$301
10%$157$172$189$206
12%$117$128$140$153
14%$91$100$110$120

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($314) offers 1228% upside at 15% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (13%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($123) with 10% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Net Income Projection

Year 1$2.00B
Year 2$2.26B
Year 3$2.54B
Year 4$2.86B
Year 5$3.22B
Terminal$47.41B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate12.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$1.78BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is UNMA stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

UNMA trades at $23.63 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $188.52, implying +300% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 12.6% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of UNMA's future cash flows. The bear case ($125.28) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is UNMA's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.78B, projected at 12.6% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.65B net debt and dividing by 0.19B shares: Bear $125.28 | Base $188.52 | Bull $276.58. Current price $23.63 implies +300% to base case.

How is UNMA's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 12.6% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($38.99B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 21.9x.