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Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$440.03
→
Intrinsic$695.31
+58%
$462.69$695.31$1,136.94
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests VMI could have 58% upside at 21% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $440, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (21%).
Range: Bear $463 → Bull $1137. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 17% | 19% | 21% | 23% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $856 | $930 | $1009 | $1093 |
| 10% | $591 | $641 | $695 | $753 |
| 12% | $444 | $482 | $522 | $565 |
| 14% | $351 | $381 | $412 | $446 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1137) offers 158% upside at 25% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (10%) ≤ historical CAGR (21%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($463) with 17% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 21% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$594.98M
Year 2$717.71M
Year 3$865.77M
Year 4$1.04B
Year 5$1.26B
Terminal$18.54B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$493.23MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.