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Vontier Corporation (VNT)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$38.88
→
Intrinsic$28.74
-26%
$15.89$28.74$53.17
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
VNT trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $39, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $16 → Bull $53. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $36 | $41 | $45 | $50 |
| 10% | $22 | $25 | $29 | $32 |
| 12% | $15 | $17 | $19 | $22 |
| 14% | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($53) offers 37% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($16) implies 59% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 13% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 26% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$372.38M
Year 2$402.17M
Year 3$434.35M
Year 4$469.10M
Year 5$506.62M
Terminal$7.45B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$344.80MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.