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Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$222.05
→
Intrinsic$167.67
-24%
$107.66$167.67$281.59
Market implies 27% growth for 5 years
VRSK trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $222, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (27%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $108 → Bull $282. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $209 | $228 | $248 | $270 |
| 10% | $141 | $154 | $168 | $183 |
| 12% | $103 | $113 | $123 | $134 |
| 14% | $79 | $87 | $95 | $103 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($282) offers 27% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($108) implies 52% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 27% growth expectations vs 20% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 24% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.10B
Year 2$1.32B
Year 3$1.59B
Year 4$1.91B
Year 5$2.29B
Terminal$33.65B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$920.10MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.