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VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$249.22
→
Intrinsic$153.72
-38%
$99.99$153.72$255.86
Market implies 21% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 9% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $249, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (21%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $100 → Bull $256. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $186 | $204 | $224 | $245 |
| 10% | $128 | $140 | $154 | $168 |
| 12% | $95 | $105 | $115 | $126 |
| 14% | $75 | $82 | $90 | $99 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($256) offers 3% upside at 11% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 9% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($100) implies 60% downside at 7% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 21% growth expectations vs 9% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 38% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$955.03M
Year 2$1.04B
Year 3$1.14B
Year 4$1.24B
Year 5$1.36B
Terminal$19.99B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate9.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$874.50MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.