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Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (WH)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$80.46
→
Intrinsic$58.58
-27%
$30.52$58.58$111.86
Market implies 26% growth for 5 years
WH trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $80, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (26%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $31 → Bull $112. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $78 | $87 | $96 | $107 |
| 10% | $46 | $52 | $59 | $66 |
| 12% | $28 | $33 | $38 | $43 |
| 14% | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($112) offers 39% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($31) implies 62% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 26% growth expectations vs 20% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 27% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$289.20M
Year 2$347.04M
Year 3$416.45M
Year 4$499.74M
Year 5$599.69M
Terminal$8.82B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$241.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.