White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM)
Valuation Overview•Is White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 80/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: High-quality compounder, with profitability as the only relative weakness.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
WTM demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (32.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (15.8% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 46.5% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $515.4M | +15.0% | +32.7% | +24.8% | +19.9% | |
| EBITDA | -$20.7M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$31.1M | +380.2% | +11.8% | — | +14.1% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-12.59 | +379.1% | +15.8% | +13.6% | +23.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $36.8M | -101.2% | — | +10.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 59.0% | 50.8% | 38.0% | 65.4% |
| Operating Margin | 46.5% | 29.5% | 6.2% | 1.1% |
| Net Margin | 39.4% | 24.7% | 19.6% | 60.8% |
| FCF Margin | 24.0% | 14.4% | 19.4% | 2.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-4.00 | $12.59 | +414.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $379.45 | $39.77 | -89.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $57.00 | $72.21 | +26.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $57.00 | $47.75 | -16.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-14.00 | $-20.50 | -46.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-33.00 | $-50.78 | -53.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $99.00 | $69.68 | -29.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-26.00 | $-2.74 | +89.5% |
Total return is +15.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -9.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -1.3% | -10.7% | — |
| 1Y | +15.1% | -9.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +14.0% | -5.7% | +0.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +12.6% | -0.1% | +0.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.4% | -4.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM) valuation, health, and returns.
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +188.6% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $5811.29)
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $5811.29 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $2502.56. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 80/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 16.1%.
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 4.1% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +0.9% in the last 12 months.
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +15.0% 1Y revenue growth and +379.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +32.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 2 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 33% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. include: -14.3% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.24x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.