...

Woodward, Inc. (WWD) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Woodward, Inc. (WWD)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$330.09
→
Intrinsic$129.43
-61%
$88.77$129.43$206.70
Current price reflects execution expectations above 14% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $89 → Bull $207. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $207).
Discount ↓Growth →10%12%14%16%
8%$155$169$183$199
10%$110$120$129$140
12%$85$92$100$108
14%$70$75$81$87

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($207) with 17% growth, 9% discount rate
  • Conservative 14% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($89) implies 73% downside at 11% growth, 12% discount
  • Trading 61% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
  • Price exceeds bull case ($207) — requires exceptional execution
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$387.90M
Year 2$442.07M
Year 3$503.80M
Year 4$574.16M
Year 5$654.34M
Terminal$9.63B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate14.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$340.37MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare WWD vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is WWD stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

WWD trades at $330.09 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $129.43, implying -60% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 14.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($185.68) suggests limited upside.

What is WWD's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $340M, projected at 14.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-82M net debt and dividing by 0.06B shares: Bear $89.48 | Base $129.43 | Bull $185.68. Current price $330.09 implies -60% to base case.

How is WWD's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 14.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($7.87B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 23.1x.