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Weyerhaeuser Company (WY)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$25.75
→
Intrinsic$16.30
-37%
$9.24$16.30$29.73
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $26, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $9 → Bull $30. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $20 | $23 | $25 | $28 |
| 10% | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| 12% | $9 | $10 | $11 | $13 |
| 14% | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($30) offers 15% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($9) implies 64% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 17% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 37% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$969.84M
Year 2$1.05B
Year 3$1.13B
Year 4$1.22B
Year 5$1.32B
Terminal$19.41B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$898.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.