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Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (XHR) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (XHR)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$14.87
→
Intrinsic$29.19
+96%
$15.98$29.19$54.28
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests XHR could have 96% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $15, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $16 → Bull $54. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$38$42$47$52
10%$23$26$29$32
12%$15$17$19$22
14%$10$11$13$15

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($54) offers 265% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (10%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($16) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$173.87M
Year 2$208.64M
Year 3$250.37M
Year 4$300.45M
Year 5$360.54M
Terminal$5.31B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$144.89MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is XHR stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

XHR trades at $14.87 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $29.19, implying +97% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of XHR's future cash flows. The bear case ($14.92) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is XHR's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $145M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $1.26B net debt and dividing by 0.10B shares: Bear $14.92 | Base $29.19 | Bull $50.21. Current price $14.87 implies +97% to base case.

How is XHR's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($4.24B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.