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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$22.54
→
Intrinsic$188.36
+736%
$126.88$188.36$305.10
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ZTO could have 736% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $23, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 20%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $127 → Bull $305. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$231$250$271$293
10%$161$174$188$204
12%$122$132$143$154
14%$97$105$114$123

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($305) offers 1254% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($127) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$6.63B
Year 2$7.96B
Year 3$9.55B
Year 4$11.46B
Year 5$13.75B
Terminal$202.38B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$5.53BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is ZTO stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

ZTO trades at $22.54 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $188.36, implying +300% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of ZTO's future cash flows. The bear case ($121.95) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is ZTO's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $5.53B, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.88B net debt and dividing by 0.84B shares: Bear $121.95 | Base $188.36 | Bull $286.16. Current price $22.54 implies +300% to base case.

How is ZTO's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($161.81B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.