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Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (ZWS)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$47.27
→
Intrinsic$38.76
-18%
$25.79$38.76$63.40
Market implies 22% growth for 5 years
ZWS trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $47, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (22%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $26 → Bull $63. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 13% | 15% | 17% | 19% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $47 | $52 | $56 | $61 |
| 10% | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| 12% | $25 | $27 | $29 | $32 |
| 14% | $20 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($63) offers 34% upside at 21% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($26) implies 45% downside at 14% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 22% growth expectations vs 17% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 18% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$318.28M
Year 2$372.85M
Year 3$436.77M
Year 4$511.66M
Year 5$599.38M
Terminal$8.82B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate17.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$271.70MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.