Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) vs Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | GWRE | 22.6% revenue growth vs FRGE's 13.6% |
| Quality / Margins | GWRE | 7.2% net margin vs FRGE's -67.4% |
| Stability / Safety | FRGE | Beta 0.56 vs GWRE's 0.88, lower leverage |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | FRGE | +200.0% vs GWRE's -27.8% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | GWRE | 3.5% ROA vs FRGE's -24.8%, ROIC 2.3% vs -45.6% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Guidewire Software is a provider of core software systems for property and casualty insurers worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through software licenses, cloud subscriptions, and implementation services — with its InsuranceSuite platform being the main offering. The company's moat comes from deep industry-specific expertise, high switching costs for insurers, and a comprehensive product ecosystem that creates vendor lock-in.
Forge Global operates a marketplace and technology platform for trading private company shares. It generates revenue primarily through transaction fees from secondary market trades in private securities — supplemented by data subscriptions and technology services for market participants. The company's key advantage is its established network effect and proprietary technology infrastructure that connects private companies, shareholders, and accredited investors in a traditionally illiquid market.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
GWRE leads in 3 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). FRGE leads in 2 (Valuation Metrics, Risk & Volatility).
Financial Metrics (TTM)
GWRE is the larger business by revenue, generating $1.3B annually — 13.7x FRGE's $93M. GWRE is the more profitable business, keeping 7.2% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to FRGE's -67.4%. On growth, GWRE holds the edge at +26.5% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | GWREGuidewire Softwar… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $1.3B | $93M |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $89M | -$64M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $92M | -$63M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $286M | -$40M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +63.1% | +11.9% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +5.1% | -73.5% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +7.2% | -67.4% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +22.5% | -43.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +26.5% | +10.6% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +2.3% | +8.1% |
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | GWREGuidewire Softwar… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $12.3B | $8.4B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $12.3B | $8.3B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 179.41x | -8.29x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 49.27x | — |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 189.75x | — |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 10.22x | 105.74x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 8.57x | 2.42x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 41.62x | — |
Profitability & Efficiency
GWRE delivers a 6.0% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $6 in annual profit, vs $-30 for FRGE. FRGE carries lower financial leverage with a 0.06x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to GWRE's 0.49x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), GWRE scores 7/9 vs FRGE's 3/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | GWREGuidewire Softwar… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +6.0% | -30.3% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +3.5% | -24.8% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +2.3% | -45.6% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +2.3% | -31.3% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 7 | 3 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 0.49x | 0.06x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $17M | -$91M |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $699M | $105M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $716M | $15M |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 5.92x | — |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in GWRE five years ago would be worth $12,565 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $2,927 for FRGE. Over the past 12 months, FRGE leads with a +200.0% total return vs GWRE's -27.8%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors GWRE at 27.4% vs FRGE's 18.6% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | GWREGuidewire Softwar… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -22.5% | +1.2% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -27.8% | +200.0% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +107.0% | +66.7% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +25.7% | -70.7% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +195.2% | -70.9% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +27.4% | +18.6% |
Risk & Volatility
FRGE is the less volatile stock with a 0.56 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than GWRE's 0.88 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. FRGE currently trades 99.9% from its 52-week high vs GWRE's 53.3% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | GWREGuidewire Softwar… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 0.88x | 0.56x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $272.60 | $45.03 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $120.75 | $6.60 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +53.3% | +99.9% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 52.5 | 64.7 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 1.3M | 146K |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates GWRE as "Buy" and FRGE as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 74.4% upside for GWRE (target: $254) vs 0.0% for FRGE (target: $45).
| Metric | GWREGuidewire Softwar… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $253.50 | $45.00 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 26 | 5 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | — | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Feb 21 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidewire Software,… (GWRE) | 100 | 120.08 | +20.1% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | 100 | 28.88 | -71.1% |
Guidewire Software,… (GWRE) returned +26% over 5 years vs Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE)'s -71%. A $10,000 investment in GWRE 5 years ago would be worth $12,565 today (including dividends reinvested).
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidewire Software,… (GWRE) | $424M | $1.2B | +183.3% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | $24M | $79M | +229.9% |
Guidewire Software, Inc.'s revenue grew from $424M (2016) to $1.2B (2025) — a 12.3% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidewire Software,… (GWRE) | 3.5% | 5.8% | +64.5% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | -63.4% | -83.6% | -32.0% |
Guidewire Software, Inc.'s net margin went from 4% (2016) to 6% (2025).
Chart 4P/E Ratio History — 3 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidewire Software,… (GWRE) | 309.4 | 248.2 | -19.8% |
Guidewire Software, Inc. has traded in a 248x–439x P/E range over 3 years; current trailing P/E is ~179x.
Chart 5EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guidewire Software,… (GWRE) | 0.2 | 0.81 | +305.0% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | -4.42 | -5.43 | -22.9% |
Guidewire Software, Inc.'s EPS grew from $0.20 (2016) to $0.81 (2025) — a 17% CAGR.
Chart 6Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Guidewire Software, Inc. generated $295M FCF in 2025 (+257% vs 2021). Forge Global Holdings, Inc. generated $-41M FCF in 2024 (-641% vs 2021).
GWRE vs FRGE: Frequently Asked Questions
8 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is GWRE or FRGE a better buy right now?
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) offers the better valuation at 179.4x trailing P/E (49.3x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) a "Buy" — based on 26 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which is the better long-term investment — GWRE or FRGE?
Over the past 5 years, Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) delivered a total return of +25.7%, compared to -70.7% for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE). A $10,000 investment in GWRE five years ago would be worth approximately $13K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: GWRE returned +195.2% versus FRGE's -70.9%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
03Which is safer — GWRE or FRGE?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) is the lower-risk stock at 0.56β versus Guidewire Software, Inc.'s 0.88β — meaning GWRE is approximately 59% more volatile than FRGE relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 6% versus 49% for Guidewire Software, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
04Which has better profit margins — GWRE or FRGE?
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) is the more profitable company, earning 5.8% net margin versus -83.6% for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 5.8% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: GWRE leads at 3.4% versus -103.7% for FRGE. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — GWRE leads at 62.5%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
05Is GWRE or FRGE more undervalued right now?
Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for GWRE: 74.4% to $253.50.
06Which pays a better dividend — GWRE or FRGE?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
07Is GWRE or FRGE better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.56)). Both have compounded well over 10 years (FRGE: -70.9%, GWRE: +195.2%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
08What are the main differences between GWRE and FRGE?
Both stocks operate in the Technology sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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