Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE)
Valuation Overview•Is Forge Global Holdings, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 42/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
FRGE struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($91M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-14.8% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-73.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.3M | +13.6% | -14.8% | +27.0% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$19.3M | — | -151.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$18.2M | +26.5% | -53.1% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.37 | +30.4% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$11.4M | +1.6% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 11.9% | 51.8% | 70.6% | 75.5% |
| Operating Margin | -73.5% | -143.1% | -90.6% | -85.6% |
| Net Margin | -67.4% | -124.7% | -81.8% | -78.7% |
| FCF Margin | -43.4% | -73.7% | -44.5% | -36.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $-0.89 | $-1.20 | -34.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-1.01 | $-1.35 | -33.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-1.16 | $-0.99 | +14.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-1.34 | $-1.29 | +3.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-1.35 | $-1.20 | +11.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-1.35 | $-1.50 | -11.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-1.80 | $-1.20 | +33.3% | ||
| Q2'24 | $-1.80 | $-1.50 | +16.7% |
Total return is +144.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +123.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +1.2% | -6.1% | — |
| 1Y | +144.0% | +123.2% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +12.8% | -9.4% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -21.0% | -32.5% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -11.6% | -25.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) valuation, health, and returns.
Forge Global Holdings, Inc. valuation is being assessed using available models.
Forge Global Holdings, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Wall Street Analyst Target: $33.33 (implying -25.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Forge Global Holdings, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 42/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 6.8 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -45.6%.
Forge Global Holdings, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Forge Global Holdings, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +13.6% 1Y revenue growth and +30.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -14.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 5 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -25.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. include: -35.4% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.36x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.