Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) vs Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | NP | 40.6% revenue growth vs FICO's 15.9% |
| Value | FICO | Lower P/E (33.9x vs 40.3x) |
| Quality / Margins | FICO | 31.9% net margin vs NP's 29.0% |
| Stability / Safety | FICO | Beta 1.00 vs NP's 1.04 |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | NP | -16.0% vs FICO's -25.3% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | NP | 77.0% ROA vs FICO's 35.5% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Neptune Insurance Holdings is a data-driven managing general agent that uses AI platforms to underwrite and distribute flood and parametric earthquake insurance. It earns revenue primarily through commissions on policies sold — roughly 80% from flood insurance and 20% from parametric earthquake coverage — without taking balance sheet risk itself. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary AI underwriting engine and machine learning models that enable more accurate risk assessment than traditional methods.
Fair Isaac Corporation is a data analytics and decision management software company that helps businesses make better credit, fraud, and risk decisions. It generates revenue primarily through its FICO Scores business—which provides credit scoring data and analytics—and its Software segment that sells decision management platforms and professional services. The company's main competitive advantage is its FICO credit scoring system, which has become the industry standard used by over 90% of top U.S. lenders.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
NP leads in 3 of 6 categories (Valuation Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). FICO leads in 2 (Total Returns, Risk & Volatility). 1 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
FICO is the larger business by revenue, generating $2.1B annually — 17.3x NP's $119M. Profitability is closely matched — net margins range from 31.9% (FICO) to 29.0% (NP).
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $119M | $2.1B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | — | $995M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | — | $658M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | — | $735M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +66.4% | +82.9% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +57.4% | +47.5% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +29.0% | +31.9% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +38.7% | +35.6% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | +16.4% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | +7.7% |
Valuation Metrics
At 13.2x trailing earnings, NP trades at a 75% valuation discount to FICO's 53.1x P/E. On an enterprise value basis, NP's 14.4x EV/EBITDA is more attractive than FICO's 38.8x.
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $904M | $33.5B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $1.0B | $36.4B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 13.18x | 53.10x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 40.33x | 33.93x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | 1.94x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 14.42x | 38.76x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 7.58x | 16.82x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | — | — |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 19.57x | 43.50x |
Profitability & Efficiency
On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), NP scores 8/9 vs FICO's 7/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | — | — |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +77.0% | +35.5% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | — | +59.7% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +11.3% | +78.5% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 8 | 7 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | — | — |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $127M | $2.9B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $7M | $134M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $134M | $3.1B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 3.91x | 6.78x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in FICO five years ago would be worth $29,863 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $9,349 for NP. Over the past 12 months, NP leads with a -16.0% total return vs FICO's -25.3%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors FICO at 27.7% vs NP's -5.7% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -25.1% | -14.2% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -16.0% | -25.3% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -16.0% | +108.1% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -6.5% | +198.6% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +30.0% | +1316.3% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | -5.7% | +27.7% |
Risk & Volatility
FICO is the less volatile stock with a 1.00 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than NP's 1.04 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500.
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.04x | 1.00x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $33.23 | $2217.60 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $14.78 | $1193.10 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +62.7% | +63.6% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 45.5 | 47.7 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 340K | 244K |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates NP as "Buy" and FICO as "Buy". Consensus price targets imply 49.8% upside for FICO (target: $2111) vs 30.6% for NP (target: $27).
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FICOFair Isaac Corpor… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $27.19 | $2111.17 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 12 | 18 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 1 | 0 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | +4.2% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neptune Insurance H… (NP) | $85M | $119M | +40.6% |
| Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) | $881M | $2.0B | +125.9% |
Fair Isaac Corporation's revenue grew from $881M (2016) to $2.0B (2025) — a 9.5% CAGR.
Chart 2Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neptune Insurance H… (NP) | 21.1% | 29.0% | +37.6% |
| Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) | 12.4% | 32.7% | +163.7% |
Fair Isaac Corporation's net margin went from 12% (2016) to 33% (2025).
Chart 3P/E Ratio History — 9 Years
| Stock | 2017 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) | 38.5 | 63.7 | +65.5% |
Fair Isaac Corporation has traded in a 32x–97x P/E range over 9 years; current trailing P/E is ~53x.
Chart 4EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2016 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neptune Insurance H… (NP) | 1.04 | 1.58 | +51.9% |
| Fair Isaac Corporat… (FICO) | 3.39 | 26.54 | +682.9% |
Fair Isaac Corporation's EPS grew from $3.39 (2016) to $26.54 (2025) — a 26% CAGR.
Chart 5Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. generated $46M FCF in 2024 (+216% vs 2023). Fair Isaac Corporation generated $770M FCF in 2025 (+85% vs 2021).
NP vs FICO: Frequently Asked Questions
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is NP or FICO a better buy right now?
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) offers the better valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E (40.3x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) a "Buy" — based on 12 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — NP or FICO?
On trailing P/E, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) is the cheapest at 13.2x versus Fair Isaac Corporation at 53.1x. On forward P/E, Fair Isaac Corporation is actually cheaper at 33.9x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — NP or FICO?
Over the past 5 years, Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) delivered a total return of +198.6%, compared to -6.5% for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP). A $10,000 investment in FICO five years ago would be worth approximately $30K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: FICO returned +1316% versus NP's +30.0%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — NP or FICO?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is the lower-risk stock at 1.00β versus Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.'s 1.04β — meaning NP is approximately 4% more volatile than FICO relative to the S&P 500.
05Which has better profit margins — NP or FICO?
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is the more profitable company, earning 32.7% net margin versus 29.0% for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. — meaning it keeps 32.7% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: NP leads at 57.4% versus 46.5% for FICO. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — FICO leads at 82.2%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is NP or FICO more undervalued right now?
On forward earnings alone, Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) trades at 33.9x forward P/E versus 40.3x for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. — 6.4x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for FICO: 49.8% to $2111.17.
07Which pays a better dividend — NP or FICO?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
08Is NP or FICO better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 1.00), +1316% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (FICO: +1316%, NP: +30.0%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between NP and FICO?
Both stocks operate in the Technology sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: NP is a small-cap deep-value stock; FICO is a mid-cap quality compounder stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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