Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) vs Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | NP | 40.6% revenue growth vs FRGE's 13.6% |
| Quality / Margins | NP | 29.0% net margin vs FRGE's -67.4% |
| Stability / Safety | FRGE | Beta 0.56 vs NP's 1.04 |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | FRGE | +200.0% vs NP's -16.0% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | NP | 77.0% ROA vs FRGE's -24.8% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Neptune Insurance Holdings is a data-driven managing general agent that uses AI platforms to underwrite and distribute flood and parametric earthquake insurance. It earns revenue primarily through commissions on policies sold — roughly 80% from flood insurance and 20% from parametric earthquake coverage — without taking balance sheet risk itself. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary AI underwriting engine and machine learning models that enable more accurate risk assessment than traditional methods.
Forge Global operates a marketplace and technology platform for trading private company shares. It generates revenue primarily through transaction fees from secondary market trades in private securities — supplemented by data subscriptions and technology services for market participants. The company's key advantage is its established network effect and proprietary technology infrastructure that connects private companies, shareholders, and accredited investors in a traditionally illiquid market.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
NP leads in 2 of 6 categories (Financial Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). FRGE leads in 2 (Total Returns, Risk & Volatility). 1 tied.
Financial Metrics (TTM)
NP and FRGE operate at a comparable scale, with $119M and $93M in trailing revenue. NP is the more profitable business, keeping 29.0% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to FRGE's -67.4%.
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $119M | $93M |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | — | -$64M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | — | -$63M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | — | -$40M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +66.4% | +11.9% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +57.4% | -73.5% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +29.0% | -67.4% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +38.7% | -43.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | +10.6% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | — | +8.1% |
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $904M | $8.4B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $1.0B | $8.3B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 13.18x | -8.29x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 40.33x | — |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 14.42x | — |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 7.58x | 105.74x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | — | 2.42x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 19.57x | — |
Profitability & Efficiency
On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), NP scores 8/9 vs FRGE's 3/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | — | -30.3% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +77.0% | -24.8% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | — | -45.6% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +11.3% | -31.3% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 8 | 3 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | — | 0.06x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $127M | -$91M |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $7M | $105M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $134M | $15M |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 3.91x | — |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in NP five years ago would be worth $9,349 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $2,927 for FRGE. Over the past 12 months, FRGE leads with a +200.0% total return vs NP's -16.0%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors FRGE at 18.6% vs NP's -5.7% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -25.1% | +1.2% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -16.0% | +200.0% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -16.0% | +66.7% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -6.5% | -70.7% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +30.0% | -70.9% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | -5.7% | +18.6% |
Risk & Volatility
FRGE is the less volatile stock with a 0.56 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than NP's 1.04 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. FRGE currently trades 99.9% from its 52-week high vs NP's 62.7% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.04x | 0.56x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $33.23 | $45.03 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $14.78 | $6.60 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +62.7% | +99.9% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 45.5 | 64.7 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 340K | 146K |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates NP as "Buy" and FRGE as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 30.6% upside for NP (target: $27) vs 0.0% for FRGE (target: $45).
| Metric | NPNeptune Insurance… | FRGEForge Global Hold… |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $27.19 | $45.00 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 12 | 5 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 1 | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2019 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neptune Insurance H… (NP) | $85M | $119M | +40.6% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | $24M | $79M | +229.9% |
Forge Global Holdings, Inc.'s revenue grew from $24M (2019) to $79M (2024) — a 27.0% CAGR.
Chart 2Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2019 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neptune Insurance H… (NP) | 21.1% | 29.0% | +37.6% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | -63.4% | -83.6% | -32.0% |
Forge Global Holdings, Inc.'s net margin went from -63% (2019) to -84% (2024).
Chart 3EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2019 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neptune Insurance H… (NP) | 1.04 | 1.58 | +51.9% |
| Forge Global Holdin… (FRGE) | -4.42 | -5.43 | -22.9% |
Forge Global Holdings, Inc.'s EPS grew from $-4.42 (2019) to $-5.43 (2024).
Chart 4Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. generated $46M FCF in 2024 (+216% vs 2023). Forge Global Holdings, Inc. generated $-41M FCF in 2024 (-641% vs 2021).
NP vs FRGE: Frequently Asked Questions
8 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is NP or FRGE a better buy right now?
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) offers the better valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E (40.3x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) a "Buy" — based on 12 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which is the better long-term investment — NP or FRGE?
Over the past 5 years, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) delivered a total return of -6.5%, compared to -70.7% for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE). A $10,000 investment in NP five years ago would be worth approximately $9K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: NP returned +30.0% versus FRGE's -70.9%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
03Which is safer — NP or FRGE?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) is the lower-risk stock at 0.56β versus Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.'s 1.04β — meaning NP is approximately 87% more volatile than FRGE relative to the S&P 500.
04Which has better profit margins — NP or FRGE?
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) is the more profitable company, earning 29.0% net margin versus -83.6% for Forge Global Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 29.0% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: NP leads at 57.4% versus -103.7% for FRGE. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — NP leads at 66.4%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
05Is NP or FRGE more undervalued right now?
Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for NP: 30.6% to $27.19.
06Which pays a better dividend — NP or FRGE?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
07Is NP or FRGE better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (FRGE) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.56)). Both have compounded well over 10 years (FRGE: -70.9%, NP: +30.0%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
08What are the main differences between NP and FRGE?
Both stocks operate in the Technology sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. In terms of investment character: NP is a small-cap deep-value stock; FRGE is a small-cap quality compounder stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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