Comprehensive Stock Comparison
Compare Toast, Inc. (TOST) vs Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) Stock
Analyze side-by-side fundamentals, valuation, growth, and profitability to decide which stock is the better buy.
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Quick Verdict
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | AFRM | 38.8% revenue growth vs TOST's 24.1% |
| Value | TOST | Lower P/E (22.4x vs 43.6x) |
| Quality / Margins | AFRM | 9.7% net margin vs TOST's 5.6% |
| Stability / Safety | TOST | Beta 1.51 vs AFRM's 2.41, lower leverage |
| Dividends | Tie | Neither pays a meaningful dividend |
| Momentum (1Y) | AFRM | -26.8% vs TOST's -29.2% |
| Efficiency (ROA) | TOST | 10.9% ROA vs AFRM's 2.2%, ROIC 30.8% vs -0.7% |
Who Each Stock Is For
Income & stability
Growth exposure
Long-term compounding (10Y)
Sleep-well-at-night portfolio
Defensive / Recession hedge
Business Model
What each company does and how it makes money
Toast is a cloud-based restaurant management platform that provides point-of-sale systems, payment processing, and operational software to eateries. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its software platform (about 25% of revenue) and payment processing fees from restaurant transactions (roughly 70% of revenue). The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated ecosystem—combining hardware, software, and payments—which creates high switching costs for restaurants once they adopt the full Toast system.
Affirm operates a buy-now-pay-later platform that enables consumers to split purchases into installment payments at online and physical retailers. It generates revenue primarily from merchant fees — typically 3-6% of transaction value — and interest income from longer-term loans to consumers. Its key advantage is a transparent, fee-free model that builds consumer trust and a growing merchant network that creates a two-sided marketplace effect.
Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
Financial Metrics Comparison
Side-by-side fundamentals across 2 stocks. BestLagging
Financial Scorecard
TOST leads in 3 of 6 categories (Valuation Metrics, Profitability & Efficiency). AFRM leads in 2 (Financial Metrics, Total Returns).
Financial Metrics (TTM)
TOST is the larger business by revenue, generating $6.2B annually — 2.1x AFRM's $2.9B. Profitability is closely matched — net margins range from 9.7% (AFRM) to 5.6% (TOST). On growth, TOST holds the edge at +22.0% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | TOSTToast, Inc. | AFRMAffirm Holdings, … |
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $6.2B | $2.9B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $361M | $420M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $342M | $282M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $608M | $619M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +25.8% | +59.5% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +4.8% | +7.9% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +5.6% | +9.7% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +9.9% | +21.2% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +22.0% | -62.1% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +190.9% | +60.9% |
Valuation Metrics
At 48.8x trailing earnings, TOST trades at a 84% valuation discount to AFRM's 313.2x P/E. On an enterprise value basis, TOST's 34.9x EV/EBITDA is more attractive than AFRM's 158.0x.
| Metric | TOSTToast, Inc. | AFRMAffirm Holdings, … |
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $14.3B | $15.3B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $13.0B | $21.8B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 48.77x | 313.20x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 22.38x | 43.63x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 34.87x | 158.00x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 2.32x | 4.74x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 7.80x | 5.22x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 23.49x | 25.38x |
Profitability & Efficiency
TOST delivers a 16.1% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $16 in annual profit, vs $8 for AFRM. TOST carries lower financial leverage with a 0.02x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to AFRM's 2.56x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), TOST scores 7/9 vs AFRM's 6/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | TOSTToast, Inc. | AFRMAffirm Holdings, … |
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +16.1% | +8.0% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +10.9% | +2.2% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +30.8% | -0.7% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +15.9% | -0.9% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 7 | 6 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 0.02x | 2.56x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | -$1.3B | $6.5B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $1.4B | $1.4B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $40M | $7.9B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | — | 1.49x |
Total Returns (with DRIP)
A $10,000 investment in AFRM five years ago would be worth $5,138 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $4,369 for TOST. Over the past 12 months, AFRM leads with a -26.8% total return vs TOST's -29.2%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors AFRM at 51.1% vs TOST's 13.0% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | TOSTToast, Inc. | AFRMAffirm Holdings, … |
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -19.7% | -36.5% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -29.2% | -26.8% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +44.3% | +244.9% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -56.3% | -48.6% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -56.3% | -51.7% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +13.0% | +51.1% |
Risk & Volatility
TOST is the less volatile stock with a 1.51 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than AFRM's 2.41 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. TOST currently trades 55.0% from its 52-week high vs AFRM's 47.0% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | TOSTToast, Inc. | AFRMAffirm Holdings, … |
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.51x | 2.41x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $49.66 | $100.00 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $24.35 | $30.90 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +55.0% | +47.0% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 44.1 | 34.4 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 9.2M | 5.3M |
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates TOST as "Buy" and AFRM as "Buy". Consensus price targets imply 79.7% upside for AFRM (target: $84) vs 45.8% for TOST (target: $40).
| Metric | TOSTToast, Inc. | AFRMAffirm Holdings, … |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Buy |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $39.82 | $84.40 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 29 | 32 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | — |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | — | — |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | — |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +0.7% | +1.6% |
Historical Charts
Charts are rendered on first load. Hover for details.
Chart 1Total Return — 5 Years (Rebased to 100)
| Stock | Sep 21 | Feb 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toast, Inc. (TOST) | 100 | 50.42 | -49.6% |
| Affirm Holdings, In… (AFRM) | 100 | 52.6 | -47.4% |
Affirm Holdings, In… (AFRM) returned -49% over 5 years vs Toast, Inc. (TOST)'s -56%.
Chart 2Revenue Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2019 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toast, Inc. (TOST) | $665M | $6.2B | +825.3% |
| Affirm Holdings, In… (AFRM) | $264M | $3.2B | +1119.7% |
Toast, Inc.'s revenue grew from $665M (2019) to $6.2B (2025) — a 44.9% CAGR. Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s revenue grew from $264M (2019) to $3.2B (2025) — a 51.7% CAGR.
Chart 3Net Margin Trend — 10 Years
| Stock | 2019 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toast, Inc. (TOST) | -31.4% | 5.6% | +117.7% |
| Affirm Holdings, In… (AFRM) | -45.6% | 1.6% | +103.6% |
Toast, Inc.'s net margin went from -31% (2019) to 6% (2025). Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s net margin went from -46% (2019) to 2% (2025).
Chart 4EPS Growth — 10 Years
| Stock | 2019 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toast, Inc. (TOST) | -0.45 | 0.56 | +224.4% |
| Affirm Holdings, In… (AFRM) | -0.47 | 0.15 | +131.9% |
Toast, Inc.'s EPS grew from $-0.45 (2019) to $0.56 (2025). Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s EPS grew from $-0.47 (2019) to $0.15 (2025).
Chart 5Free Cash Flow — 5 Years
Toast, Inc. generated $608M FCF in 2025 (+3676% vs 2021). Affirm Holdings, Inc. generated $602M FCF in 2025 (+382% vs 2021).
TOST vs AFRM: Frequently Asked Questions
9 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is TOST or AFRM a better buy right now?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) offers the better valuation at 48.8x trailing P/E (22.4x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Toast, Inc. (TOST) a "Buy" — based on 29 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — TOST or AFRM?
On trailing P/E, Toast, Inc. (TOST) is the cheapest at 48.8x versus Affirm Holdings, Inc. at 313.2x. On forward P/E, Toast, Inc. is actually cheaper at 22.4x.
03Which is the better long-term investment — TOST or AFRM?
Over the past 5 years, Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) delivered a total return of -48.6%, compared to -56.3% for Toast, Inc. (TOST). A $10,000 investment in AFRM five years ago would be worth approximately $5K today (assuming dividends reinvested). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: AFRM returned -51.7% versus TOST's -56.3%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — TOST or AFRM?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Toast, Inc. (TOST) is the lower-risk stock at 1.51β versus Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s 2.41β — meaning AFRM is approximately 60% more volatile than TOST relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Toast, Inc. (TOST) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 2% versus 3% for Affirm Holdings, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which has better profit margins — TOST or AFRM?
Toast, Inc. (TOST) is the more profitable company, earning 5.6% net margin versus 1.6% for Affirm Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 5.6% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: TOST leads at 5.0% versus -2.7% for AFRM. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — AFRM leads at 67.5%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
06Is TOST or AFRM more undervalued right now?
On forward earnings alone, Toast, Inc. (TOST) trades at 22.4x forward P/E versus 43.6x for Affirm Holdings, Inc. — 21.2x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for AFRM: 79.7% to $84.40.
07Which pays a better dividend — TOST or AFRM?
None of the stocks in this comparison currently pay a material dividend. All are effectively zero-yield and should be held for capital appreciation rather than income.
08Is TOST or AFRM better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Toast, Inc. (TOST) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding. Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) carries a higher beta of 2.41 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (TOST: -56.3%, AFRM: -51.7%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
09What are the main differences between TOST and AFRM?
Both stocks operate in the Technology sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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