Zacks Investment Research·2d ago
TLN Drops 33.3% in 3 Months as Risks Test Its Cash Flow StoryTalen Energy's stronger cash generation offers support, but debt, pricing pressure and data-center execution risks keep the recovery case unsettled.
Talen Energy is undergoing a massive capital expenditure program to build data center infrastructure, with PPE net surging from $3.2B in 2024Q4 to $11.9B by 2026Q2. This expansion is almost entirely debt-financed, driving debt-to-equity from 0.95 to 5.84 over ...
Price trend, volume and key moving averages
Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.
Revenue surged 64.5% YoY to $747M in 2026Q2, but operating income swung to a -$72M loss, reflecting volatile margins that ranged from 29.3% in 2026Q1 to -33.9% in 2025Q4.
TLN is positioned to benefit from the increasing need for stable, carbon-free power required by hyperscale data centers and AI technologies. The company has secured a long-term contract with Amazon Web Services to supply nuclear power to their data center campus, providing significant revenue visibility.
Management has projected aggressive Adjusted EBITDA for 2026, nearly doubling the 2025 estimates. Analysts have a consensus rating of 'Strong Buy' for TLN, with expectations of substantial growth in EBITDA from 2024 to 2027, driven by higher capacity prices and improved energy margins.
TLN is acquiring natural gas assets to expand its generation capacity, which is expected to significantly boost its free cash flow per share. This strategic expansion diversifies its generation mix and meets the growing peaking demand.
Trailing total returns as of 9/23/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).
Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.
Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.
| Quarter | EPS (Act vs Est) | Revenue (Act vs Est) |
|---|---|---|
Q3 2026Latest Aug 5, 2026 | -$2.00-162.3% vs $3.21 | $747M-10.3% vs $833M |
Q2 2026 May 5, 2026 | $1.33-73.5% vs $5.01 | $1.1B+7.8% vs $1.0B |
Q1 2026 Feb 26, 2026 | -$7.60-390.1% vs $2.62 | $749M+12.8% vs $664M |
Q4 2025 Nov 5, 2025 | $4.25+33.6% vs $3.18 | $812M+8.9% vs $745M |
Talen Energy's stronger cash generation offers support, but debt, pricing pressure and data-center execution risks keep the recovery case unsettled.
Talen Energy's valuation sits below its historical and sub-industry multiples, while its capital-return plan ties buybacks to stronger cash generation.
Talen Energy's enlarged fleet and stronger market backdrop set a higher benchmark for converting favorable power conditions into sustained cash generation.
US data center demand has outrun the grid's ability to add generation, and the power buyers know it. PJM's most recent Base Residual Auction for the 2028/2029 delivery year cleared at $325.
Benchmark TLN against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.
Key metrics vs top competitors for Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)
| Company | Price | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | Rev Growth (1Y) | Net Margin | ROE | Div Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $294.54 | $13.37B | -61.49 | 26.68% | -8.34% | -17.66% | — | |
| $140.41 | $47.34B | 63.53 | -12.41% | 13.89% | 41.4% | — | |
| $102.75 | $21.68B | 25.62 | 9.17% | 2.31% | 25.38% | — | |
| $263.46 | $94.61B | 35.60 | 8.34% | 11.12% | 14.54% | — | |
| $27.29 | $16.34B | 17.38 | 27.06% | 20.73% | 41.89% | — | |
| $17.14 | $3.2B | -4.94 | — | — | -64.3% | — |
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.
Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)
Aug 5, 2026·SEC
Jul 14, 2026·SEC
Jun 15, 2026·SEC
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Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) reported $3.53B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 2% decrease from $3.61B in 2015.
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) grew revenue by 26.7% over the past year. This is strong growth.
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) reported a net loss of $185.0M for fiscal year 2025.
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) has a return on equity (ROE) of -17.7%. Negative ROE indicates the company is unprofitable.
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) had negative free cash flow of $5.55B in fiscal year 2025, likely due to heavy capital investments.
