Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) 10-Year Financial Performance & Capital Metrics

AGO • • Insurance & Managed Care

Financial ServicesSpecialty InsuranceFinancial Guaranty InsuranceFinancial Guaranty Monoline Insurers

AboutAssured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Insurance and Asset Management. It offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. The company insures and reinsures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects. It also insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it is involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. Structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations, financial products, and other structured finance securities. Additionally, the company offers specialty insurance and reinsurance that include life and aircraft residual value insurance transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services, including management of collateralized loan obligations, and opportunity and liquid strategy funds. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.Show more

Revenue $814M -19.8%
Combined Ratio 40.05% +17.1%
Net Income $376M -49.1%
Return on Equity 6.64% -50.3%
Medical Cost Ratio -0.74% -104.3%
Operating Margin 59.95% -8.9%
Net Margin 46.19% -36.6%
ROA 3.08% -38.8%
Equity / Assets 46.66% +1.5%
Book Value per Share 102.27 +5.7%
Tangible BV/Share 102.27 +5.8%
Debt/Equity 0.31 +4.1%

Technical Analysis

Key Insights

Based on financial data analysis

✓Strengths

✓Profitable underwriting: 40.0% combined ratio
✓15 consecutive years of dividend growth
✓Low loss ratio of -0.7%
✓Share count reduced 8.9% through buybacks
✓Trading at only 0.8x book value

✗Weaknesses

No significant weaknesses identified

Price & Volume

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Growth Metrics

Revenue CAGR

10Y-7.31%

5Y-2.5%

3Y5.26%

TTM0%

Profit (Net Income) CAGR

10Y-10.08%

5Y-1.33%

3Y-1.13%

TTM-45.23%

EPS CAGR

10Y0.93%

5Y11.42%

3Y9.45%

TTM-54.6%

ROCE

10Y Avg4.7%

5Y Avg3.04%

3Y Avg3.14%

Latest3.99%

Peer Comparison

Financial Guaranty Monoline Insurers

Name	Market Cap	Current Price	P/E Ratio	Revenue Growth 1Y	Net Margin	ROE	FCF Yield	Debt/Equity
AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.	3.95B	85.56	12.45	-19.8%	42.14%	7.01%	1.19%	0.31
AMBCAmbac Financial Group, Inc.	276.45M	6.31	4.44	89.06%	-7.87%	-67.99%	0.28%	0.13
MBIMBIA Inc.	354.47M	7.02	-0.75	5%	-195.51%

Profit & Loss

	Dec 2015	Dec 2016	Dec 2017	Dec 2018	Dec 2019	Dec 2020	Dec 2021	Dec 2022	Dec 2023	Dec 2024
Revenue+	1.96B	1.38B	1.65B	987M	924M	1.08B	698M	684M	1.01B	814M
Revenue Growth %	0.12%	-0.29%	0.2%	-0.4%	-0.06%	0.17%	-0.36%	-0.02%	0.48%	-0.2%
Medical Costs & Claims+	444M	313M	407M	80M	111M	219M	-206M	30M	175M	-6M
Medical Cost Ratio %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Gross Profit+	1.51B	1.07B	1.24B	907M	813M	865M	904M	654M	840M	820M
Gross Margin %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Gross Profit Growth %	-0.05%	-0.29%	0.17%	-0.27%	-0.1%	0.06%	0.05%	-0.28%	0.28%	-0.02%
Operating Expenses+	80M	50M	253M	327M	349M	452M	427M	506M	172M	332M
OpEx / Revenue %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Depreciation & Amortization	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Combined Ratio %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Income+	1.43B	1.02B	991M	580M	464M	413M	477M	148M	668M	488M
Operating Margin %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Income Growth %	-0.07%	-0.29%	-0.03%	-0.41%	-0.2%	-0.11%	0.15%	-0.69%	3.51%	-0.27%
EBITDA+	1.53B	1.12B	1.09B	674M	553M	498M	564M	229M	758M	579M
EBITDA Margin %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Interest Expense	101M	102M	97M	94M	89M	85M	87M	81M	90M	91M
Non-Operating Income	-101M	-102M	-97M	-94M	-89M	-85M	-87M	-81M	-90M	-91M
Pretax Income+	1.43B	1.02B	991M	580M	464M	413M	477M	148M	668M	488M
Pretax Margin %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Income Tax+	375M	136M	261M	59M	63M	45M	58M	11M	-93M	96M
Effective Tax Rate %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Income+	1.06B	881M	730M	521M	402M	362M	389M	124M	739M	376M
Net Margin %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Income Growth %	-0.03%	-0.17%	-0.17%	-0.29%	-0.23%	-0.1%	0.07%	-0.68%	4.96%	-0.49%
EPS (Diluted)+	7.08	6.56	5.96	4.68	4.00	4.19	5.24	1.92	12.30	6.87
EPS Growth %	0.13%	-0.07%	-0.09%	-0.21%	-0.15%	0.05%	0.25%	-0.63%	5.41%	-0.44%
EPS (Basic)	7.12	6.61	6.05	4.74	4.04	4.22	5.29	1.96	12.55	7.01
Diluted Shares Outstanding	149M	134.1M	122.3M	111.3M	100.2M	86.2M	74.3M	63.9M	59.6M	54.3M

Balance Sheet

	Dec 2015	Dec 2016	Dec 2017	Dec 2018	Dec 2019	Dec 2020	Dec 2021	Dec 2022	Dec 2023	Dec 2024
Total Assets+	14.54B	14.15B	14.43B	13.6B	14.33B	15.33B	18.21B	16.84B	12.54B	11.9B
Asset Growth %	-0.03%	-0.03%	0.02%	-0.06%	0.05%	0.07%	0.19%	-0.07%	-0.26%	-0.05%
Total Investment Assets+	12.53B	11.87B	12.1B	11.44B	20.69B	10.13B	19.11B	16.58B	9.44B	8.81B
Long-Term Investments	12.28B	11.7B	12B	11.39B	10.56B	9.92B	9.69B	8.65B	8.61B	7.88B
Short-Term Investments	11.02B	10.82B	11.3B	10.82B	10.12B	9.62B	9.43B	7.93B	7.97B	2.34B
Total Current Assets+	11.53B	10.94B	11.75B	12.32B	12.32B	0	11.72B	9.59B	0	0
Cash & Equivalents	166M	118M	144M	104M	169M	162M	120M	107M	97M	121M
Receivables	0	0	0	0	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K
Other Current Assets	0	0	0	0	4.35B	-12.15B	3.6B	2.92B	-9.83B	-4.41B
Goodwill & Intangibles+	114M	106M	101M	129M	216M	203M	175M	163M	6M	0
Goodwill	0	0	0	0	117M	117M	117M	117M	0	0
Intangible Assets	114M	106M	101M	129M	99M	86M	58M	46M	6M	0
PP&E (Net)	-114M	-106M	-101M	10.96B	572M	1.91B	5.27B	5.49B	366M	101M
Other Assets	-12.28B	-11.7B	-12B	-11.39B	-254M	-12.04B	-195M	-114M	-8.99B	-7.99B
Total Liabilities	8.48B	7.65B	7.59B	7.05B	7.67B	8.63B	11.71B	11.55B	6.77B	6.35B
Total Debt+	1.3B	1.31B	1.29B	1.23B	1.24B	1.22B	1.67B	1.68B	1.69B	1.7B
Net Debt	1.13B	1.19B	1.15B	1.13B	1.07B	1.06B	1.55B	1.57B	1.6B	1.58B
Long-Term Debt	1.3B	1.31B	1.29B	1.23B	1.24B	1.08B	1.67B	1.68B	1.69B	1.7B
Short-Term Debt	0	0	0	0	0	145M	23M	23M	0	0
Total Current Liabilities+	51M	64M	61M	1.18B	1.08B	0	928M	297M	0	0
Accounts Payable	51M	64M	61M	0	30M	0	16M	1M	0	0
Deferred Revenue	0	0	0	0	0	0	43M	0	0	0
Other Current Liabilities	-51M	-64M	-61M	0	1.05B	-145M	276M	161M	0	0
Deferred Taxes	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	0	1000K	0	0	0
Other Liabilities	0	0	0	5.82B	6.44B	-1.08B	-1.67B	9.88B	-1.69B	-1.7B
Total Equity+	6.06B	6.5B	6.84B	6.55B	6.65B	6.71B	6.5B	5.29B	5.76B	5.55B
Equity Growth %	0.05%	0.07%	0.05%	-0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	-0.03%	-0.19%	0.09%	-0.04%
Shareholders Equity	6.06B	6.5B	6.84B	6.55B	6.64B	6.64B	6.29B	5.06B	5.71B	5.5B
Minority Interest	0	0	0	0	13M	62M	208M	228M	52M	58M
Retained Earnings	4.48B	5.29B	5.89B	6.37B	6.29B	6.14B	5.99B	5.58B	6.07B	5.88B
Common Stock	1M	1M	1M	1M	1M	1M	1M	1M	1M	1M
Accumulated OCI	237M	149M	372M	93M	342M	498M	300M	-515M	-359M	-385M
Return on Equity (ROE)	0.18%	0.14%	0.11%	0.08%	0.06%	0.05%	0.06%	0.02%	0.13%	0.07%
Return on Assets (ROA)	0.07%	0.06%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%	0.03%
Equity / Assets	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Debt / Equity	0.21x	0.20x	0.19x	0.19x	0.19x	0.18x	0.26x	0.32x	0.29x	0.31x
Book Value per Share	40.69	48.50	55.92	58.89	66.39	77.78	87.48	82.82	96.73	102.27
Tangible BV per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Cash Flow

	Dec 2015	Dec 2016	Dec 2017	Dec 2018	Dec 2019	Dec 2020	Dec 2021	Dec 2022	Dec 2023	Dec 2024
Cash from Operations+	-52M	-141M	433M	462M	-509M	-853M	-1.94B	-2.48B	461M	47M
Operating CF Growth %	-1.09%	-1.71%	4.07%	0.07%	-2.1%	-0.68%	-1.27%	-0.28%	1.19%	-0.9%
Operating CF / Revenue %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Income	1.06B	881M	730M	521M	137M	368M	419M	137M	761M	376M
Depreciation & Amortization	-25M	-34M	-46M	-31M	-35M	13M	12M	11M	0	0
Stock-Based Compensation	10M	13M	16M	19M	21M	25M	27M	39M	0	0
Deferred Taxes	300M	19M	250M	74M	65M	58M	-38M	-3M	-156M	-4M
Other Non-Cash Items	31M	-27M	-26M	32M	3M	-975M	-2.36B	-1.34B	-8M	-215M
Working Capital Changes	-471M	-720M	-284M	-165M	-700M	-342M	2M	-1.32B	-136M	-110M
Cash from Investing+	994M	1.08B	345M	297M	1.17B	788M	23M	1.74B	286M	780M
Capital Expenditures	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	25M	0	0
Acquisitions	-800M	-435M	95M	0	-233M	-19M	-79M	-25M	-198M	0
Purchase of Investments	-2.58B	-1.65B	-2.55B	-2.21B	-1.73B	-1.47B	-1.65B	-459M	-1.43B	-1.35B
Sale/Maturity of Investments	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	0
Other Investing	469M	620M	206M	133M	187M	84M	56M	81M	172M	2.13B
Cash from Financing+	-847M	-978M	-766M	-795M	-584M	183M	1.96B	612M	-670M	-983M
Dividends Paid	-72M	-69M	-70M	-71M	-74M	-69M	-66M	-64M	-67M	-68M
Share Repurchases	-562M	-308M	-501M	-500M	-500M	-446M	-496M	-500M	-199M	-502M
Stock Issued	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Debt Issuance (Net)	-1000K	-1000K	-1000K	-1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	1000K	-1000K	-1000K
Other Financing	-209M	12M	-165M	-123M	-182M	-42M	0	-57M	-248M	-38M
Net Change in Cash+	91M	-48M	17M	-40M	79M	115M	44M	-135M	79M	-158M
Exchange Rate Effect	-1000K	-1000K	1000K	-1000K	1000K	-1000K	-1000K	-1000K	1000K	-1000K
Cash at Beginning	75M	166M	127M	144M	104M	183M	298M	342M	207M	286M
Cash at End	166M	118M	144M	104M	183M	298M	342M	207M	286M	128M
Free Cash Flow+	-52M	-141M	433M	462M	-509M	-853M	-1.94B	-2.45B	461M	47M
FCF Growth %	-1.09%	-1.71%	4.07%	0.07%	-2.1%	-0.68%	-1.27%	-0.27%	1.19%	-0.9%
FCF Margin %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
FCF per Share	-0.35	-1.05	3.54	4.15	-5.08	-9.9	-26.07	-38.4	7.73	0.87

Key Ratios

Metric	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Combined Ratio	26.8%	26.3%	39.98%	41.24%	49.78%	61.9%	31.66%	78.36%	34.19%	40.05%
Medical Cost Ratio	22.71%	22.68%	24.65%	8.11%	12.01%	20.2%	-29.51%	4.39%	17.24%	-0.74%
Return on Equity (ROE)	17.87%	14.02%	10.94%	7.78%	6.09%	5.42%	5.89%	2.1%	13.37%	6.64%
Return on Assets (ROA)	7.17%	6.14%	5.11%	3.72%	2.88%	2.44%	2.32%	0.71%	5.03%	3.08%
Equity / Assets	41.69%	45.96%	47.38%	48.19%	46.43%	43.73%	35.7%	31.42%	45.98%	46.66%
Book Value / Share	40.69	48.5	55.92	58.89	66.39	77.78	87.48	82.82	96.73	102.27
Debt / Equity	0.21x	0.20x	0.19x	0.19x	0.19x	0.18x	0.26x	0.32x	0.29x	0.31x
Revenue Growth	12.42%	-29.41%	19.64%	-40.22%	-6.38%	17.32%	-35.61%	-2.01%	48.39%	-19.8%

Revenue by Segment

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Insurance	-	-	-	-	-	-	733M	757M	855M	821M
Insurance Growth	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3.27%	12.95%	-3.98%
Asset Management	-	-	-	-	-	-	83M	112M	76M	10M
Asset Management Growth	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	34.94%	-32.14%	-86.84%
Asset Management Fees, CLO's	-	-	-	-	18M	54M	-	-	-	-
Asset Management Fees, CLO's Growth	-	-	-	-	-	200.00%	-	-	-	-
Collateralized Loan Obligations, Before Rebates	-	-	-	-	11M	40M	-	-	-	-
Collateralized Loan Obligations, Before Rebates Growth	-	-	-	-	-	263.64%	-	-	-	-
Reimbursable Fund Expense	-	-	-	-	-	35M	-	-	-	-
Reimbursable Fund Expense Growth	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Wind-down Funds	-	-	-	-	13M	25M	-	-	-	-
Wind-down Funds Growth	-	-	-	-	-	92.31%	-	-	-	-
Collateralized Loan Obligation Service	-	-	-	-	3M	21M	-	-	-	-
Collateralized Loan Obligation Service Growth	-	-	-	-	-	600.00%	-	-	-	-
Opportunity Funds	-	-	-	-	2M	8M	-	-	-	-
Opportunity Funds Growth	-	-	-	-	-	300.00%	-	-	-	-
Performance Allocation Fees	-	-	-	-	4M	-	-	-	-	-
Performance Allocation Fees Growth	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Financial Guarantee Insurance Product Line	3.77B	3.34B	3.41B	3.51B	-	-	-	-	-	-
Financial Guarantee Insurance Product Line Growth	-	-11.35%	1.94%	3.08%	-	-	-	-	-	-

Revenue by Geography

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
UNITED STATES	-	-	-	-	761M	788M	762M	727M	1.06B	685M
UNITED STATES Growth	-	-	-	-	-	3.55%	-3.30%	-4.59%	46.35%	-35.62%
BERMUDA	-	-	-	-	161M	155M	153M	129M	166M	168M
BERMUDA Growth	-	-	-	-	-	-3.73%	-1.29%	-15.69%	28.68%	1.20%
UNITED KINGDOM	-	-	-	-	-	-	42M	32M	36M	32M
UNITED KINGDOM Growth	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-23.81%	12.50%	-11.11%
Other Countries	-	-	-	-	-	8M	3M	-1M	1M	1M
Other Countries Growth	-	-	-	-	-	-	-62.50%	-133.33%	200.00%	0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions

Valuation & Price

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.5x. This may indicate the stock is undervalued or faces growth challenges.

Growth & Financials

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) saw revenue decline by 19.8% over the past year.

Yes, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is profitable, generating $402.0M in net income for fiscal year 2024 (46.2% net margin).

Dividend & Returns

Yes, Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) pays a dividend with a yield of 1.46%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) has a return on equity (ROE) of 6.6%. This is below average, suggesting room for improvement.

Industry Metrics

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) has a combined ratio of 40.0%. A ratio below 100% indicates underwriting profitability.

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