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HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
$90.24$4.8B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
Live BreakoutsStock ScreenerOwnership
HCC logo

Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

HCC
NYSE · Coal
$90.24
At close - Sep 23, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$4.76B
P/E83.6x
52W High$111.42
Volume332.48K
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Cyclical Recovery Accelerates Amid Blue Creek Execution Risk

Warrior Met Coal is emerging from a cyclical trough, with Q2 2026 revenue surging 70.6% year-over-year to $509.7M and gross margin expanding to 31.9%, signaling a robust recovery driven by higher met coal prices and operational leverage. The company's fortress...

GrowthAccelerating
ProfitabilityModerate
ValuationExpensive
TechnicalsMixed
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

HCC price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

6/12 Beats

EPS beat 6 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

+185% Peers

P/E is 185% above peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 60 · Avg

Average momentum (RS Rating: 60)

04

Mixed Trend

Mixed

Price < 50DMA but > 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Nov 5
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue rebounded sharply to $509.7M in Q2 2026 (up 70.6% YoY) with gross margin recovering to 31.9%, though TTM revenue remains down 14.1% and gross margin is only 8.5%, indicating a fragile recovery.

Analyst Consensus+10.8% target
Hold(24 analysts)
8 Buy15 Hold1 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Strong steelmaking coal prices

Warrior Met Coal benefits from strong momentum in steelmaking coal prices, which supports its financial outlook.

Blue Creek mine ramp-up

The ongoing ramp-up of the Blue Creek mine is expected to contribute to future growth and operational performance.

Low-cost structure advantage

The company's low-cost structure positions it competitively in the metallurgical coal market.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/24/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
HCC+1.04%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+12.39%
1-Year Return
HCC+45.90%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.77%
3-Year Return
HCC+95.88%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+69.77%
5-Year Return
HCC+325.47%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+69.05%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y High
83.6x
Forward P/EExpansion
14.8x
EV/EBITDA100th %ile
20.1x
FCF YieldCash Flow
N/A

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
83.6x
8.8x
100th· High
EV/EBITDA
20.1x
3.9x
100th· High
Price/FCF
N/A
4.5x
N/A
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$3.92-95.7%
Base (Fair)$57.85-34.2%
Bull$22.21-75.4%
$3.92 Bear$57.85 Base$22.21 Bull
Current Market Price: $90.24
Trades at a 56.0% premium to Base DCF ($57.85)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$1.31B-14.1% YoY
Net income
$57M-77.3% YoY
Free cash flow
-$91M-1.4% YoY
Operating margin
3.5%-13.2 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)1.8%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)2.7%
Piotroski Score3 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate6/12 (50%)
Revenue Beat Rate7/12 (58%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Aug 5, 2026
$1.65+17.9%
vs $1.40
$510M+4.3%
vs $488M
Q2 2026
Apr 30, 2026
$1.37-2.8%
vs $1.41
$459M-1.9%
vs $468M
Q1 2026
Feb 12, 2026
$0.44-29.0%
vs $0.62
$384M-0.1%
vs $384M
Q4 2025
Nov 5, 2025
$0.70+236.3%
vs -$0.51
$328M+8.4%
vs $303M
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
24/7 Wall Street·2d ago
Warren Buffett's Succession Triggers Search for His Spiritual Successors

Warren Buffett's step back from Berkshire forces a harder question: which public companies actually run his playbook, and how close do any of them get to the real thing?

GuruFocus·5d ago
Merck Receives Positive EU CHMP Opinion for KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) Plus Padcev® (enfortumab vedotin-ejfv) as Perioperative Treatment for Adults With Resectable Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC)

Merck (NYSE: MRK), known as MSD outside of the United States and Canada, today announced the European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Hu

Defense World·Sep 4, 2026
Jupiter Topco LLC Takes $1.83 Million Position in Warrior Met Coal $HCC

Jupiter Topco LLC acquired a new stake in Warrior Met Coal (NYSE: HCC) in the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent filing with the SEC. The firm acquired 22,560 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $1,833,000. Other hedge funds have also added to or reduced their stakes

Benzinga·Sep 1, 2026
Top 3 Materials Stocks That Could Sink Your Portfolio This Month

As of Sept. 1, 2026, three stocks in the materials sector could be flashing a real warning to investors who value momentum as a key criteria in their trading decisions.

Filtered for Warrior Met Coal, Inc.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark HCC against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
HCC logoHCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.Current
$90.24$4.76B83.56-14.12%4.35%2.69%0.38%
AMR logoAMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
$180.40$2.29B-37.98-27.99%-2.23%-2.99%—
SXC logoSXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.
$9.95$844.29M-19.13-5.07%-2.88%-8.49%—
BTU logoBTUPeabody Energy Corporation
$26.41$3.22B-61.42-8.86%-4.56%-5.22%—
ARLP logoARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.
$25.55$3.29B10.56-10.37%12.25%14.68%—
FANG logoFANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.
$185.65$52.23B32.4036.31%9.27%3.62%—

Compare HCC vs Peers

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs AMR

Most directly comparable listed peer for HCC.

Scale Benchmark

vs FCX

Larger-name benchmark to compare HCC against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs AMR, SXC, BTU, ARLP

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

HCC SEC Filings & Documents

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Aug 5, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Apr 30, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Apr 21, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

4
FY 2026

Feb 12, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 13, 2025·SEC

FY 2024

Feb 14, 2024·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Aug 5, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

Apr 30, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Nov 5, 2025·SEC

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HCC Frequently Asked Questions

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s revenue?

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) reported $1.68B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 208% increase from $544.7M in 2015.

How fast is Warrior Met Coal, Inc. growing?

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) saw revenue decline by 14.1% over the past year.

Is HCC profitable?

Yes, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) is profitable, generating $219.3M in net income for fiscal year 2025 (4.4% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does HCC pay dividends?

Yes, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) pays a dividend with a yield of 0.38%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is HCC's return on equity?

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) has a return on equity (ROE) of 2.7%. This is below average, suggesting room for improvement.

What is Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s free cash flow?

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) generated $6.1M in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

What if you invested $1,000 in HCC back in 2015?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 11+ years of data

See returns →