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HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
$84.15$4.4B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
Performance
P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
Live BreakoutsStock ScreenerOwnership
HCC logo

Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

HCC
NYSE · Coal
$84.15
At close - Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST - USD
Market Cap$4.44B
P/E19.2x
52W High$111.42
Volume836.2K
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q3

Met Coal Cyclical Rebound Faces Pricing and Working Capital Scrutiny

Warrior Met Coal's revenue has rebounded from $297.5M in Q4 2024 to $507.9M in Q3 2026, suggesting a cyclical recovery rather than a durable step-change, and operating margin reached 18.5% in Q2 2026 before compressing to 10.0% in Q3 2026.

GrowthMixed
ProfitabilityModerate
ValuationExpensive
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

HCC price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

5/12 Beats

EPS beat 5 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

+23% Peers

P/E is 23% above peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 51 · Avg

Average momentum (RS Rating: 51)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Feb 4
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue and operating margin have recovered sharply from trough levels, with operating margin reaching 18.5% in Q2 2026 before easing to 10.0% in Q3 2026, indicating that profitability remains highly sensitive to met coal pricing.

Analyst Consensus+21.2% target
Hold(24 analysts)
8 Buy15 Hold1 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

Strong steelmaking coal prices

Warrior Met Coal benefits from strong momentum in steelmaking coal prices, which supports its financial outlook.

Blue Creek mine ramp-up

The ongoing ramp-up of the Blue Creek mine is expected to contribute to future growth and operational performance.

Low-cost structure advantage

The company's low-cost structure positions it competitively in the metallurgical coal market.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 11/8/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
HCC-5.67%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+7.63%
1-Year Return
HCC+4.00%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+9.69%
3-Year Return
HCC+74.47%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+75.62%
5-Year Return
HCC+290.06%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+64.19%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/E5Y High
19.2x
Forward P/EExpansion
12.6x
EV/EBITDA80th %ile
8.9x
FCF YieldCash Flow
3.0%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
19.2x
8.8x
80th· High
EV/EBITDA
8.9x
3.9x
80th· High
Price/FCF
33.6x
4.5x
100th· High
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$6.41-92.4%
Base (Fair)$61.76-26.6%
Bull$28.36-66.3%
$6.41 Bear$61.76 Base$28.36 Bull
Current Market Price: $84.15
Trades at a 36.3% premium to Base DCF ($61.76)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue FY25
$1.31B-14.1% YoY
Net income FY25
$57M-77.3% YoY
Free cash flow FY25
-$91M-1.4% YoY
Operating margin FY25
3.5%-13.2 pts YoY
ROIC (FY25)1.8%
Avg ROIC 5Y27.3%
ROE (TTM)10.3%
Piotroski Score3 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate5/12 (42%)
Revenue Beat Rate7/12 (58%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q4 2026Latest
Nov 4, 2026
$0.93-40.0%
vs $1.55
$508M+0.4%
vs $506M
Q3 2026
Aug 5, 2026
$1.65+17.9%
vs $1.40
$510M+4.3%
vs $488M
Q2 2026
Apr 30, 2026
$1.37-2.8%
vs $1.41
$459M-1.9%
vs $468M
Q1 2026
Feb 12, 2026
$0.44-29.0%
vs $0.62
$384M-0.1%
vs $384M
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

4 Stories
MarketBeat·1d ago
Warrior Met Coal Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

Warrior Met Coal NYSE: HCC reported higher third-quarter revenue and profit as increased production from its Blue Creek mine and stronger steelmaking coal prices helped generate $139 million in free cash flow. The company also declared a $2-per-share special dividend in addition to its regular quarterly dividend.

Seeking Alpha·3d ago
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. ( HCC ) Q3 2026 Earnings Call November 4, 2026 4:30 PM EST Company Participants Brian M. Chopin - Senior VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller Walter Scheller - CEO & Director Dale Boyles - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Nick Giles - B.

Zacks Investment Research·3d ago
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Lags Q3 Earnings Estimates

Warrior Met Coal (HCC) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.93 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.71 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.7 per share a year ago.

Business Wire·3d ago
Warrior Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results

BROOKWOOD, Ala.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE: HCC) (“Warrior” or the “Company”) today announced results for the third quarter of 2026. Warrior is the leading dedicated U.S.-based producer and exporter of high-quality steelmaking coal for the global steel industry. “We delivered strong sales volumes in the third quarter as Blue Creek continued to expand our production base and strengthen our cash-generating capacity,” commented Walt Scheller, CEO of Warrior. “Higher volumes and.

Filtered for Warrior Met Coal, Inc.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark HCC against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
HCC logoHCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.Current
$84.15$4.44B19.18-14.12%12.47%10.34%0.4%
AMR logoAMRAlpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
$147.93$1.88B-37.64-27.99%-2.37%-3.29%0.02%
SXC logoSXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.
$9.80$831.56M-15.33-5.07%-2.91%-8.9%4.94%
BTU logoBTUPeabody Energy Corporation
$16.03$1.95B-13.46-8.86%-3.55%-4.26%1.87%
ARLP logoARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.
$24.39$3.14B10.09-10.37%14.09%16.69%10.77%
FANG logoFANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.
$178.96$50.34B23.0836.31%11.67%4.97%2.23%

Compare HCC vs Peers

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs AMR

Most directly comparable listed peer for HCC.

Scale Benchmark

vs FCX

Larger-name benchmark to compare HCC against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs AMR, SXC, BTU, ARLP

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

HCC SEC Filings & Documents

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Nov 4, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Aug 5, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Apr 30, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

4
FY 2026

Feb 12, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 13, 2025·SEC

FY 2024

Feb 14, 2024·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Nov 4, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

Aug 5, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

Apr 30, 2026·SEC

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HCC Frequently Asked Questions

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s revenue?

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) reported $1.86B in revenue over the trailing twelve months. Revenue was $1.31B in fiscal year 2025. That is 140% more than the $544.7M of fiscal year 2015.

How fast is Warrior Met Coal, Inc. growing?

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) grew revenue by 52.2% over the trailing twelve months, compared with the twelve months before.

Is HCC profitable?

Yes. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) earned $232.0M in net income over the trailing twelve months (a 12.5% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does HCC pay dividends?

Yes. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) pays a dividend that yields 0.40% at the current price, a small yield.

What is HCC's return on equity?

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) had a return on equity (ROE) of 10.3% over the trailing twelve months. That is in line with the market's typical 10-15%.

What is Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s free cash flow?

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) generated $132.3M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months.

What if you invested $1,000 in HCC back in 2015?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 11+ years of data

See returns →