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VSTVistra Corp.
$140.41$47.3B
Overview & Tools
OverviewChart Terminal ↗Visualize
Valuation & Forecasts
Valuation ModelsEstimatesDCF Model
Price & Analyst Data
Analyst TargetsPrice History
Financial Statements
Income StatementBalance SheetCash FlowRatios & Margins
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P/E HistoryRevenue HistoryEarnings HistoryDividend HistoryTotal Return
Discovery & Screens
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VST logo

Vistra Corp.

VST
NYSE · Independent Power
$140.41
At close - Sep 22, 4:00 PM EDT - USD
Market Cap$47.34B
P/E63.5x
52W High$219.82
Volume4.5M
OverviewTerminalAnalysisFinancialsValuationEarningsBreakoutsOwnership
VCP Research Verdict2026Q2

Nuclear Expansion Offsets Revenue Normalization Risk

Vistra's earnings power is underpinned by a hedged generation fleet and nuclear expansion, with operating cash flow averaging $1.1B per quarter despite a 12.4% revenue decline. The company's forward P/E of 16.34 suggests market expectations of normalized earni...

GrowthMixed
ProfitabilityStable
ValuationExpensive
TechnicalsWeak
Explore valuation models
MARKET ACTION

VST price & volume

Price trend, volume and key moving averages

Launch Terminal
Loading chart...
Decision Checklist4 Core Signals

What matters now

The signals most likely to change the investment case.

01

Earnings momentum

3/12 Beats

EPS beat 3 of last 12 quarters

02

Valuation risk

+192% Peers

P/E is 192% above peer median

03

Market leadership

RS 34 · Lag

Laggard (Underperforming 66% of market)

04

Weak Trend

Below 200DMA

Price < 200DMA

Next CatalystEstimated earnings · Nov 7
01

Build the investment case

Start with the evidence for owning the stock and the risks that can break the thesis.

EXECUTIVE THESIS

The Investment Case

Full Analysis
Fundamental Trajectory

Revenue declined 12.4% year-over-year to $4.0B in 2026Q2, yet operating margin of 13.8% and ROE of 5.5% indicate resilient hedging, though mark-to-market swings (EPS from -$0.93 to $2.88) distort underlying trends.

Analyst Consensus+54.9% target
Buy(22 analysts)
20 Buy2 Hold0 Sell

The Bull Case

Upside Catalysts

AI & Data Center Power Demand

Vistra has secured long‑term PPAs with major tech firms such as Meta and Amazon, providing carbon‑free energy from its nuclear fleet. The 20‑year Meta agreement covers over 2,600 MW of zero‑carbon power, ensuring a steady revenue stream as AI workloads grow.

Multi‑Decade Power Purchase Agreements

Vistra’s long‑term contracts, including the 20‑year Meta deal, lock in pricing and cash‑flow visibility for decades. These agreements give the company pricing power and reduce exposure to short‑term market volatility.

Expanding Renewable and Storage Portfolio

The company is actively adding battery storage and solar projects, signaling a commitment to cleaner energy sources. This expansion diversifies its generation mix and positions Vistra to meet future clean‑energy demand.

The Bear Case

Key Downside Risks

Market performance

Price History →

Trailing total returns as of 9/23/2026, which may include dividends or other distributions. Benchmark is S&P 500 (^GSPC).

YTD Return
VST-14.61%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+13.20%
1-Year Return
VST-35.15%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+15.98%
3-Year Return
VST+330.72%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+80.72%
5-Year Return
VST+729.41%
S&P 500 (^GSPC)+75.46%
02

Test the fundamentals

Check whether operating performance supports the current valuation.

VALUATION & INTRINSIC VALUE

Valuation Scenarios

Valuation Analysis
Trailing P/EMedian
63.5x
Forward P/EExpansion
16.3x
EV/EBITDA60th %ile
15.6x
FCF YieldCash Flow
0.3%

Valuation vs 5-Year History

Multiple Range
Metric
Current
5Y Median
Historical Range
Percentile
P/E
63.5x
19.7x
67th· Fair
EV/EBITDA
15.6x
7.3x
60th· Fair
Price/FCF
367.0x
425.0x
50th· Fair
Current Multiple
5Y Median (50th %ile)

Intrinsic Value Scenarios

DCF Projection
Bear$0.00N/A
Base (Fair)$149.96+6.6%
Bull$27.65-80.3%
$0.00 Bear$149.96 Base$27.65 Bull
Current Market Price: $140.41
Trades at a 6.4% discount to Base DCF ($149.96)
Open DCF & Valuation Models →Chart Terminal ↗

Growth & profitability

Annual revenue & EPS trend
Revenue
$16.97B-12.4% YoY
Net income
$944M-64.5% YoY
Free cash flow
$129M+118.1% YoY
Operating margin
7.9%-24.3 pts YoY
ROIC (TTM)4.3%
Avg ROIC 5Y-
ROE (TTM)17.7%
Piotroski Score4 / 9
Financial Statements →
03

Monitor what changed

Recent results and news deserve attention only when they alter the forward view.

OPERATING RESULTS

Recent Earnings

Earnings History
EPS Beat Rate3/12 (25%)
Revenue Beat Rate5/12 (42%)
QuarterEPS (Act vs Est)Revenue (Act vs Est)
Q3 2026Latest
Aug 7, 2026
$0.76-52.8%
vs $1.61
$4.0B-26.5%
vs $5.5B
Q2 2026
May 7, 2026
$2.87+117.4%
vs $1.32
$5.6B+8.1%
vs $5.2B
Q1 2026
Feb 26, 2026
$0.54-76.5%
vs $2.31
$4.6B-20.8%
vs $5.8B
Q4 2025
Nov 6, 2025
$1.75-15.9%
vs $2.08
$5.0B-18.7%
vs $6.1B
Historical baseline: 12 quarters analyzedGAAP / Adjusted
MARKET COVERAGE

Latest News

5 Stories
Zacks Investment Research·1d ago
Vistra Corp. (VST) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Vistra (VST) has received quite a bit of attention from Zacks.com users lately. Therefore, it is wise to be aware of the facts that can impact the stock's prospects.

Proactive Investors·2d ago
New Era Energy secures 20-year power deal with Vistra for Texas data center project

New Era Energy & Digital (NASDAQ:NUAI) has locked in power for one of the country's most closely watched new data center projects, securing a 20-year agreement with Vistra Corp that supplies electricity for the first phase of its Texas Critical Data Center. The company said its subsidiary, TCDC PowerCo, has signed the power purchase agreement with Vistra affiliate Luminant ET Services Company, an affiliate of for a minimum of 200 MW and up to 207 MW to supply Phase 1 of the project.

Defense World·3d ago
Vistra (NYSE:VST) Trading Down 2% – What’s Next?

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST - Get Free Report) shares dropped 2% during mid-day trading on Friday. The stock traded as low as $140.21 and last traded at $140.7470. 5,024,151 shares changed hands during mid-day trading, an increase of 3% from the average session volume of 4,879,384 shares. The stock had previously closed at $143.56. Wall

247 Wallst·4d ago
3 Stocks to Buy Before Wall Street Catches On Before September Ends

A chipmaker and two power producers are raising forecasts and signing hyperscaler contracts while their stocks sit well off their peaks. That gap between fundamentals and price action may not last past September.

Filtered for Vistra Corp.More Headlines
04

Compare before deciding

Benchmark VST against direct peers instead of judging its metrics in isolation.

Peers Comparison

Key metrics vs top competitors for Vistra Corp. (VST)

Full Screener →
CompanyPriceMarket CapP/E RatioRev Growth (1Y)Net MarginROEDiv Yield
VST logoVSTVistra Corp.Current
$140.41$47.34B63.53-12.41%5.56%17.66%0.64%
NRG logoNRGNRG Energy, Inc.
$102.75$21.68B25.629.17%2.31%25.38%—
CEG logoCEGConstellation Energy Corporation
$263.46$94.61B35.608.34%11.12%14.54%—
GEN logoGENGen Digital Inc.
$27.29$16.34B17.3827.06%20.73%41.89%—
DYN logoDYNDyne Therapeutics, Inc.
$17.14$3.2B-4.94——-64.3%—
AES logoAESThe AES Corporation
$14.82$10.57B11.76-0.37%14.62%17.1%—

Compare VST vs Peers

Vistra Corp. (VST) vs competitors — business, growth, and fundamentals comparison against the closest industry rivals.

Closest Rival

vs NRG

Most directly comparable listed peer for VST.

Scale Benchmark

vs GE

Larger-name benchmark to compare VST against a more recognizable public peer.

Peer Set

Compare Top 5

vs NRG, CEG, GEN, DYN

05

Keep researching

Verify the primary filings, follow material updates, and answer the remaining questions.

VST SEC Filings & Documents

Vistra Corp. (VST) SEC filings — annual & quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q)

8-K Announcements

6
Material company update

Aug 7, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 16, 2026·SEC

Material company update

Jul 14, 2026·SEC

10-K Annual Reports

2
FY 2026

Feb 27, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Feb 28, 2025·SEC

10-Q Quarterly Reports

6
FY 2026

Aug 10, 2026·SEC

FY 2026

May 8, 2026·SEC

FY 2025

Nov 7, 2025·SEC

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VST Frequently Asked Questions

Vistra Corp. (VST) stock FAQ — growth, dividends, profitability & financials explained

Growth & Financials
What is Vistra Corp.'s revenue?

Vistra Corp. (VST) reported $15.98B in revenue for fiscal year 2025. This represents a 184% increase from $5.64B in 2012.

How fast is Vistra Corp. growing?

Vistra Corp. (VST) saw revenue decline by 12.4% over the past year.

Is VST profitable?

Yes, Vistra Corp. (VST) is profitable, generating $2.22B in net income for fiscal year 2025 (5.6% net margin).

Dividend & Returns
Does VST pay dividends?

Yes, Vistra Corp. (VST) pays a dividend with a yield of 0.64%. This makes it attractive for income-focused investors.

What is VST's return on equity?

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a return on equity (ROE) of 17.7%. This is reasonable for most industries.

What is Vistra Corp.'s free cash flow?

Vistra Corp. (VST) generated $1.38B in free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Positive FCF indicates the company can fund dividends, buybacks, or reinvestment.

Industry Metrics
Is VST's dividend sustainable?

Vistra Corp. (VST) has a dividend payout ratio of 32%. This suggests the dividend is well-covered and sustainable.

What if you invested $1,000 in VST back in 2012?

Total return calculator · dividends reinvested · 14+ years of data

See returns →