...

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$49.34
→
Intrinsic$193.41
+292%
$132.97$193.41$308.08
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests BLBD could have 292% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $49, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $133 → Bull $308. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$237$256$276$297
10%$167$180$193$208
12%$128$138$148$159
14%$104$111$119$128

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($308) offers 524% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($133) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$220.27M
Year 2$275.33M
Year 3$344.17M
Year 4$430.21M
Year 5$537.76M
Terminal$7.91B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$176.21MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare BLBD vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BLBD stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

BLBD trades at $49.34 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $160.91, implying +240% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of BLBD's future cash flows. The bear case ($106.93) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is BLBD's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $176M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-133M net debt and dividing by 0.03B shares: Bear $106.93 | Base $160.91 | Bull $240.41. Current price $49.34 implies +240% to base case.

How is BLBD's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($5.16B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.