Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)
Valuation Overview•Is Blue Bird Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 77/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
BLBD demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins (highlighted by a massive 102.6% ROIC). This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($139M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (22.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 11.9%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $352.6M | +9.9% | +22.7% | +11.0% | +4.9% | |
| EBITDA | $35.1M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $29.3M | +21.0% | — | — | +23.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.90 | +22.8% | — | +63.7% | +20.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $39.9M | +60.0% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 21.0% | 17.3% | 13.4% | 13.0% |
| Operating Margin | 11.9% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| Net Margin | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| FCF Margin | 12.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.81 | $1.00 | +23.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.80 | $1.00 | +25.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.05 | $1.32 | +25.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.90 | $1.19 | +32.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.96 | $0.96 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.83 | $0.92 | +10.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.65 | $0.77 | +18.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.51 | $0.91 | +78.4% |
Total return is +76.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +51.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +58.2% | +48.9% | — |
| 1Y | +76.8% | +51.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +51.4% | +31.4% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +23.2% | +10.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +20.5% | +6.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) valuation, health, and returns.
Blue Bird Corporation is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $65.35)
Blue Bird Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $65.35 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $60.22 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $82.33 (implying +11.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Blue Bird Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 77/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 7.3 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 102.6%.
Blue Bird Corporation returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 2.1% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -1.4% in the last 12 months.
Blue Bird Corporation's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +9.9% 1Y revenue growth and +22.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +22.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 12 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +11.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Blue Bird Corporation include: -23.4% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.15x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.