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Cushman & Wakefield plc (CWK) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Cushman & Wakefield plc (CWK)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$17.07
→
Intrinsic$27.66
+62%
$15.38$27.66$50.96
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CWK could have 62% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $17, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $15 → Bull $51. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$37$40$44$49
10%$22$25$28$31
12%$14$16$18$21
14%$9$11$13$14

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($51) offers 199% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • 38% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (17%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($15) implies 10% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$316.88M
Year 2$396.09M
Year 3$495.12M
Year 4$618.90M
Year 5$773.62M
Terminal$11.38B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$253.50MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CWK stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

CWK trades at $17.07 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $21.05, implying +26% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of CWK's future cash flows. The bear case ($10.08) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is CWK's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $254M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $2.52B net debt and dividing by 0.23B shares: Bear $10.08 | Base $21.05 | Bull $37.21. Current price $17.07 implies +26% to base case.

How is CWK's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($7.42B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.