...

ExlService Holdings, Inc. (EXLS) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

ExlService Holdings, Inc. (EXLS)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$42.63
→
Intrinsic$46.56
+9%
$31.31$46.56$75.51
Market implies 23% growth for 5 years
EXLS appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $43, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (23%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $31 → Bull $76. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$58$62$67$73
10%$40$43$47$50
12%$30$33$35$38
14%$24$26$28$30

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($76) offers 77% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • 8% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (23%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($31) implies 27% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$277.83M
Year 2$347.29M
Year 3$434.11M
Year 4$542.63M
Year 5$678.29M
Terminal$9.98B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$222.26MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare EXLS vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is EXLS stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

EXLS trades at $42.63, within 10% of our $38.36 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $24.73 (bear) to $58.43 (bull).

What is EXLS's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $222M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $203M net debt and dividing by 0.16B shares: Bear $24.73 | Base $38.36 | Bull $58.43. Current price $42.63 implies -9% to base case.

How is EXLS's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($6.51B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.