...

Hasbro, Inc. (HAS) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Hasbro, Inc. (HAS)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$86.89
→
Intrinsic$79.03
-9%
$47.97$79.03$138.08
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
HAS appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $87, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $48 → Bull $138. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$97$108$119$132
10%$64$71$79$87
12%$45$51$57$63
14%$33$38$42$47

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($138) offers 59% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
  • Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($48) implies 45% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 10% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$821.02M
Year 2$886.70M
Year 3$957.63M
Year 4$1.03B
Year 5$1.12B
Terminal$16.44B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$760.20MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare HAS vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HAS stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

HAS trades at $86.89, within 10% of our $79.03 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 8.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $51.91 (bear) to $115.29 (bull).

What is HAS's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $760M, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $2.72B net debt and dividing by 0.14B shares: Bear $51.91 | Base $79.03 | Bull $115.29. Current price $86.89 implies -9% to base case.

How is HAS's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($13.80B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 18.2x.