Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)
Valuation Overview•Is Horace Mann Educators Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 58/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
HMN demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (102.5% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 9.3%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $429.3M | +4.8% | +6.6% | +4.7% | +4.2% | |
| EBITDA | $0.00 | — | +73.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $41.2M | +57.7% | +101.5% | — | +5.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.00 | +57.3% | +102.5% | +3.9% | +5.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $61.3M | -78.3% | -17.0% | -17.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 52.5% | 30.3% | 29.7% | 28.6% |
| Operating Margin | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% |
| Net Margin | 10.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% |
| FCF Margin | 28.6% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 17.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.10 | $1.28 | +16.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.18 | $1.21 | +2.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.04 | $1.36 | +30.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.61 | $1.06 | +73.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.88 | $1.07 | +21.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.04 | $1.62 | +55.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.72 | $0.76 | +5.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.18 | $0.20 | +11.1% |
Total return is +21.3% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +0.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +13.5% | +6.2% | — |
| 1Y | +21.3% | +0.5% | +3.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +23.2% | +4.3% | +14.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +8.5% | -2.9% | +17.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +6.9% | -7.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) valuation, health, and returns.
Horace Mann Educators Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -29.5% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $36.40)
Horace Mann Educators Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $36.40 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $64.63 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $41.67 (implying -19.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Horace Mann Educators Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 58/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.8%.
Horace Mann Educators Corporation pays a 2.7% dividend yield, covered by a 35% payout ratio with 16 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.0% buyback yield.
Horace Mann Educators Corporation's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +4.8% 1Y revenue growth and +57.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 9 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 8-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -19.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Horace Mann Educators Corporation include: -12.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.02x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.