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Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$18.47
→
Intrinsic$30.32
+64%
$18.47$30.32$52.85
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests HST could have 64% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $18, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $18 → Bull $53. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$37$41$46$50
10%$25$27$30$34
12%$17$20$22$24
14%$13$15$16$18

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($53) offers 186% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($18) with 6% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$1.58B
Year 2$1.70B
Year 3$1.84B
Year 4$1.98B
Year 5$2.14B
Terminal$31.54B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$1.46BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is HST stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

HST trades at $18.47 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $30.32, implying +66% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 8.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of HST's future cash flows. The bear case ($19.98) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is HST's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.46B, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $5.09B net debt and dividing by 0.71B shares: Bear $19.98 | Base $30.32 | Bull $44.15. Current price $18.47 implies +66% to base case.

How is HST's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($26.49B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 18.2x.