Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL)
Valuation Overview•Is Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 81/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: High-quality compounder, with solvency as the only relative weakness.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
KNSL exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 26.6% ROIC). This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (30.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (46.5% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 27.2% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $466.7M | +18.0% | +30.7% | +32.4% | +37.0% | |
| EBITDA | $0.00 | — | +47.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $112.6M | +21.4% | +46.8% | — | +36.6% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.00 | +21.8% | +46.5% | +41.1% | +35.2% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $241.3M | +4.0% | +21.6% | +32.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 36.9% | 45.7% | 42.1% | 38.5% |
| Operating Margin | 27.2% | 32.5% | 30.0% | 26.3% |
| Net Margin | 27.5% | 26.1% | 24.1% | 20.7% |
| FCF Margin | 52.9% | 60.8% | 61.9% | 55.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $4.70 | $5.11 | +8.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $5.30 | $5.81 | +9.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $4.79 | $5.21 | +8.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $4.41 | $4.78 | +8.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $3.15 | $3.71 | +17.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $4.23 | $4.62 | +9.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $3.60 | $4.20 | +16.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $3.53 | $3.75 | +6.2% |
Total return is -32.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -57.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -21.2% | -30.5% | — |
| 1Y | -32.8% | -57.8% | +0.2% |
| 3YCAGR | -4.4% | -23.9% | +0.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +14.8% | +1.6% | +2.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +32.8% | +19.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) valuation, health, and returns.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +30.1% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $401.77)
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $401.77 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $179.63 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $433.00 (implying +40.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 81/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 26.6%.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. pays a 0.2% dividend yield, covered by a 3% payout ratio with 10 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.3% buyback yield.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +18.0% 1Y revenue growth and +21.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +30.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 13 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 100% of recent quarters with a 22-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +40.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. include: -40.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.08x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.