NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)
Valuation Overview•Is NRG Energy, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 26/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
NRG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-0.9% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (3.2%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.3B | +9.2% | -0.9% | +27.6% | +9.6% | |
| EBITDA | $760.0M | — | +11.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $125.0M | -23.2% | -10.9% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.52 | -19.6% | -8.1% | +14.1% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$7.2B | -58.2% | — | -10.6% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 14.5% | 17.1% | 17.7% | 21.6% |
| Operating Margin | 3.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% |
| Net Margin | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% |
| FCF Margin | -23.7% | 1.7% | -0.9% | 6.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.77 | $1.48 | -16.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.97 | $1.03 | +6.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.14 | $2.75 | +28.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.74 | $1.68 | -3.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.75 | $2.62 | +49.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.04 | $1.52 | +46.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.95 | $1.85 | -5.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.55 | $1.48 | -4.5% |
Total return is -10.3% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -35.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -18.1% | -27.5% | — |
| 1Y | -10.3% | -35.3% | +1.2% |
| 3YCAGR | +61.1% | +40.4% | +15.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +31.2% | +17.1% | +21.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +26.1% | +12.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) valuation, health, and returns.
NRG Energy, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $149.01)
NRG Energy, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $149.01 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $100.66 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $191.20 (implying +41.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
NRG Energy, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 26/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 10.6%.
NRG Energy, Inc. pays a 1.5% dividend yield, covered by a 48% payout ratio with 6 years of growth, supplemented by a 4.9% buyback yield.
NRG Energy, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +9.2% 1Y revenue growth and -19.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -0.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 26 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +41.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for NRG Energy, Inc. include: -34.4% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.52x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.52x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.