Popular:
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$290.77
→
Intrinsic$74.63
-74%
$27.21$74.63$169.01
Market implies 32% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $291, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (32%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $27 → Bull $169. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $107 | $123 | $140 | $159 |
| 10% | $52 | $63 | $75 | $87 |
| 12% | $23 | $31 | $40 | $49 |
| 14% | $5 | $12 | $18 | $26 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($169) with 10% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($27) implies 91% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 32% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 74% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.80B
Year 2$1.95B
Year 3$2.10B
Year 4$2.27B
Year 5$2.46B
Terminal$38.91B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.67BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.