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Payoneer Global Inc. (PAYO)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$5.40
→
Intrinsic$11.90
+120%
$8.49$11.90$18.35
Market implies 3% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests PAYO could have 120% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $5, the market prices in only 3% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $8 → Bull $18. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| 10% | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| 12% | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| 14% | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($18) offers 240% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (3%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($8) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$145.67M
Year 2$182.08M
Year 3$227.60M
Year 4$284.50M
Year 5$355.63M
Terminal$5.23B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$116.53MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.