The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Valuation Overview•Is The Progressive Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 79/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
PGR demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins (highlighted by a massive 27.0% ROIC). This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (16.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (36.5% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 15.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.5B | +21.4% | +16.5% | +14.1% | +14.5% | |
| EBITDA | $3.4B | — | +34.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $2.6B | +117.3% | +36.3% | — | +20.8% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.45 | +118.8% | +36.5% | +16.5% | +20.9% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.1B | +42.8% | +25.4% | +20.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 26.3% | 20.6% | 23.4% | 23.3% |
| Operating Margin | 15.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% |
| Net Margin | 12.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% |
| FCF Margin | 20.0% | 16.5% | 16.2% | 14.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $4.85 | $4.96 | +2.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $4.44 | $4.67 | +5.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $4.99 | $4.05 | -18.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $4.43 | $4.88 | +10.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $4.79 | $4.65 | -2.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $3.57 | $4.08 | +14.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $3.69 | $3.58 | -3.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $2.05 | $2.65 | +29.3% |
Total return is -16.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -41.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +3.0% | -6.3% | — |
| 1Y | -16.0% | -41.0% | +5.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +20.2% | +0.6% | +15.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +19.7% | +7.3% | +24.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +22.3% | +8.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about The Progressive Corporation (PGR) valuation, health, and returns.
The Progressive Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +88.6% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $386.33)
The Progressive Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $386.33 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $162.23 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $228.42 (implying +11.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
The Progressive Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 79/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 27.0%.
The Progressive Corporation pays a 0.6% dividend yield, covered by a 8% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.5% buyback yield.
The Progressive Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +21.4% 1Y revenue growth and +118.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +16.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 41 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +11.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for The Progressive Corporation include: -28.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.22x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.